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Construction sector

VGP

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Rau Quả
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
24.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
671.078
Current
24.900
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
16.67%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.37%
x
D/(D+E)
83.33%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
124.808
50%DCF Value
1.217.347
Blended Intrinsic
671.078
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VGP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

73
Good
Accrual Quality
52
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.85
Low Risk
DSRI
1.041
GMI
1.258
AQI
0.876
SGI
1.122
DEPI
0.871
SGAI
0.869
TATA
-0.131
LVGI
1.004

VGP's Beneish M-Score of -2.8522 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 72.9 indicates potential concerns, particularly with revenue recognition, which scored 0.0/100.

Red Flags
  • The SGI of 1.1223 indicates a growth rate higher than industry peers, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • The EQ revenue score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the sustainability of reported revenues.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings, suggesting operational efficiency.
  • Ownership concentration with the top shareholder holding 18.8% may align interests, reducing agency risk.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with the top two shareholders holding a combined 35.1%, which could lead to governance risks if their interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VGP's revenue recognition practices and consider a deeper analysis of cash flow sustainability before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.27
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.79
Negative
Composite
68
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-13.3%
Volatility
18.5%
Max Drawdown
-16.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.96P/E
P/B0.90
P/S0.02
ROE7.1%
ROA0.3%
EPS2098.82
BVPS30254.40
Gross Margin0.3%
Net Margin0.1%
D/E21.11
Current Ratio1.04
Rev Growth12.2%
Profit Growth1.7%
EV/EBITDA37.27
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.2M
Charter Capital
82.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VGP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Phù Đổng Invest
Inst
18.8%
1.5 trieu
Phạm Ngọc Quỳnh
Indiv
16.3%
1.3 trieu
Công ty cổ phần Tập đoàn VINACAM
Inst
2.4%
200.000
Huỳnh Kim Sắt
Indiv
1.7%
129.592
Huỳnh Nguyên
Indiv
1.1%
84.452
Nguyễn Văn Thạnh
Indiv
0.6%
46.666
Bùi Hoàng Chương
Indiv
0.4%
38.752
Tạ Mỹ Duyên
Indiv
0.4%
29.333
Board & Management
Phạm Ngọc Quỳnh16.3%
Giám đốc điều hành
Nguyễn Bình Nghiệp
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Quỳnh Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Anh Thơ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Vĩnh Hùng
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Mạnh Hoàng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thị Dung
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thanh Bình
Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị
Trương Thị Hải Yến
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
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