CTF
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CTF
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
CTF exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.484, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, its earnings quality score of 54.0 suggests concerns regarding the sustainability of earnings. The mixed signals from earnings quality metrics warrant a cautious approach.
- Earnings Quality Score of 54.0 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly low eq_margin (18.1/100) and eq_cash_conv (0.0/100), which raises concerns about cash flow generation.
- Beneish M-Score of -2.484 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
The top shareholders include a significant institutional stake of 15.2%, which may provide some stability; however, the high concentration of individual shareholders (totaling 34.6%) could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.
Investors should closely monitor earnings quality metrics and cash flow generation before making investment decisions, while considering the relatively low risk of earnings manipulation indicated by the Beneish M-Score.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for CTF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate