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Consumer sector

TAN

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Cà phê Thuận An
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
44.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
71.355
Current
44.300
Gap
+61.1%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
74.65%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.85%
x
D/(D+E)
25.35%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend11.79%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF5.05B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
5.05B
Growth Rate
11.79%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
71.355
Value Decomposition
40%
60%
Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TAN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

68
Fair
Accrual Quality
79
Cash Conversion
63
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
80

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.26
Moderate
DSRI
1.006
GMI
0.700
AQI
0.982
SGI
1.132
DEPI
1.151
SGAI
0.982
TATA
0.051
LVGI
1.003

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2625 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in profit margins, which could signal operational inefficiencies.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 67.6/100, indicating potential concerns with earnings sustainability.
  • Profit margin score of 0.0/100 suggests severe issues in cost management or pricing strategy.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
  • A DSRI of 1.0059 is close to 1, suggesting stable inventory management relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top five shareholders holding 96.2% of the shares, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, especially given the high individual stakes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor operational performance and margin improvements while considering a cautious approach due to the elevated risk profile. Engaging with management on strategic initiatives to enhance profitability could be beneficial.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.85
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.11
Positive
Composite
64
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+2.3%
Volatility
26.2%
Max Drawdown
-29.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.13P/E
P/B2.27
P/S2.78
ROE37.5%
ROA28.0%
EPS6175.60
BVPS19386.49
Gross Margin63.3%
Net Margin38.9%
D/E0.34
Current Ratio1.24
Rev Growth13.2%
Profit Growth97.3%
EV/EBITDA6.05
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1.6M
Charter Capital
16.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TAN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trần Quang Hiển
Indiv
22.3%
360.000
Hoàng Hải
Indiv
21.7%
350.000
Công ty TNHH Phù Đổng Invest
Inst
18.8%
303.500
Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Vang
Indiv
12.4%
200.000
Lê Văn Một
Indiv
11.0%
177.600
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Nông
Indiv
5.0%
80.685
Phan Hồng Hải
Indiv
5.0%
80.000
Hồ Thị Cẩm Vân
Indiv
5.0%
80.000
Board & Management
Lê Văn Một11.0%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tô Mạnh Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Nghị
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Định
Kế toán trưởng
Trịnh Thị Mai Dung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Hồng Minh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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