VHD

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư phát triển nhà và đô thị VINAHUD

Bất động sảnCT

3.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

37.054

Current

3.600

Gap

+500.0%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

16.67%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

83.33%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

—

60%DCF Value

37.054

Blended Intrinsic

37.054

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VHD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.54

Low Risk

DSRI

2.678

GMI

0.535

AQI

1.253

SGI

0.202

DEPI

3.427

SGAI

4.353

TATA

-0.093

LVGI

1.029

VHD exhibits several concerning financial indicators, particularly a Beneish M-Score of -2.5353, which suggests potential earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 33.4/100, with particularly low metrics in receivables and margins, raises further concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.5353, indicating potential earnings manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 33.4/100, with eq_receivables and eq_margin both at 0.0/100, suggesting significant issues in revenue recognition and profitability.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 2.6779 indicates that the increase in receivables is not alarming compared to sales, but the 0.0/100 score in eq_receivables raises concerns.
The presence of significant individual shareholders, with the top three holding 71.5% collectively, may provide stability and alignment of interests.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top four shareholders holding over 80%, poses risks of governance issues and potential lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on VHD, particularly regarding its earnings quality and potential manipulation risks. Consider monitoring future financial disclosures closely for signs of improvement or deterioration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

-0.31

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.71

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-54.5%

Volatility

120.1%

Max Drawdown

-76.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

-1.33P/E

P/B0.00

P/S3.77

ROE-324.5%

ROA-3.0%

EPS-2942.23

BVPS0.00

Gross Margin9.9%

Net Margin-284.3%

D/E-160.32

Current Ratio0.93

Rev Growth-79.8%

Profit Growth28.1%

EV/EBITDA-42.33

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

38.0M

Charter Capital

380.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VHD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Trương Quang Minh

Indiv

24.7%

9.4 trieu

Nguyễn Đình Ngôn

Indiv

24.0%

9.1 trieu

Nguyễn Hồ Nam

Indiv

22.8%

8.7 trieu

Vũ Nam Chung

Indiv

9.6%

3.6 trieu

Huỳnh Dương Thị Diễm Chi

Indiv

3.8%

1.4 trieu

Phạm Thị Hạnh

Indiv

2.3%

861.000

Nguyễn Hoài Giang

Indiv

1.6%

108.601

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Oanh

Indiv

0.9%

343.000

Trương Thanh Minh

Indiv

0.9%

330.000

Lê Quang Vinh

Indiv

0.1%

10.000

Vương Hồng Khanh

Indiv

0.1%

10.000

Board & Management

Trương Quang Minh24.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Oanh0.9%

Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Quang Vinh0.1%

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Thái Duy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Tài

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tấn Minh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hà Văn Hiến

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Phương Ngân

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Trung Kiên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quang Hà

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Hoài Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

DTG24.9%EIC24.7%BCG22.8%TCD22.8%HAS14.5%LBE7.2%EBS2.3%API1.6%IDJ1.6%

Computed 12/04/2026