BCA

Cyclicals

Công ty cổ phần B.C.H

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

18.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

13.445

Current

18.700

Gap

-28.1%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation

Negative Equity Value Bvps Floor

BVPS

19.208

Discount

70%

Floor Value

19.208

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BCA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.43

Moderate

DSRI

0.481

GMI

0.228

AQI

1.013

SGI

1.442

DEPI

0.119

SGAI

8.207

TATA

0.402

LVGI

1.007

BCA's Beneish M-Score of -2.4289 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGAI of 8.2072 and low earnings quality score of 39.8 suggest significant concerns regarding operational efficiency and earnings sustainability.

Red Flags

SGAI of 8.2072 indicates excessive selling, which may reflect poor demand or overproduction.
Earnings Quality Score of 39.8/100, particularly low eq_accrual of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.4814 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong credit management and collection practices.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively concentrated with the largest shareholder holding 19.5%, which may lead to governance risks if interests diverge from minority shareholders. However, the presence of institutional ownership may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BCA's operational metrics and earnings quality, particularly the high SGAI and low accruals, while considering a cautious approach to investment until improvements in operational efficiency are evident.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.11

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.40

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+19.5%

Volatility

76.9%

Max Drawdown

-42.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

81.28P/E

P/B0.95

P/S0.14

ROE1.5%

ROA0.3%

EPS225.32

BVPS19207.61

Gross Margin3.9%

Net Margin0.2%

D/E2.76

Current Ratio1.07

Rev Growth14.6%

Profit Growth122.5%

EV/EBITDA10.95

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

50.0M

Charter Capital

500.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BCA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Thái Hưng

Inst

19.5%

9.7 trieu

Trần Nguyên Hưng

Indiv

5.1%

968.000

Trần Văn Hiếu

Indiv

4.8%

918.000

Nguyễn Duy Luân

Indiv

4.8%

908.000

Phạm Bá Phú

Indiv

3.5%

1.7 trieu

Đặng Ngọc Hưng

Indiv

3.0%

1.5 trieu

Lê Thu Phương

Indiv

2.4%

1.2 trieu

Trần Ngọc Hân

Indiv

0.3%

63.000

Vũ Văn Dương

Indiv

0.1%

63.000

Board & Management

NGUYỄN DUY LUÂN4.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Bá Phú3.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Ngọc Hưng3.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Thu Phương2.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Ngọc Hân0.3%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Văn Dương0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Linh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tống Thắng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Thị Dung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TIS20.0%STH19.5%DDM12.2%SFI5.1%QNC4.8%TS34.8%PMC4.8%HMH3.0%ITQ2.0%BAB1.2%

Computed 12/04/2026