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Cyclicals sector

ITQ

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Thiên Quang
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT
2.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
1.266
Current
2.800
Gap
-54.8%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA17.76B
Fair EV/EBITDA9.8x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
17.76B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
9.8x
-
Net Debt
134.48B
=
Equity Value
1.266
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ITQ

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

45
Weak
Accrual Quality
79
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
9
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-1.70
Elevated
DSRI
0.858
GMI
0.876
AQI
3.958
SGI
0.988
DEPI
0.966
SGAI
1.206
TATA
-0.042
LVGI
0.908

The Beneish M-Score of -1.6969 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin recognition, which could pose risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 75.0/100 indicates potential issues, especially with eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, suggesting significant concerns in revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish components such as DSRI (0.8577) and GMI (0.8760) suggest a stable financial condition, with low growth in receivables and inventory relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individual investors with relatively low ownership stakes, which may indicate a lack of concentrated control and potential governance issues. This dispersed ownership could lead to challenges in aligning interests among shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on management's financial reporting. Given the moderate risk level, a cautious approach is recommended before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.83
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.16
Negative
Composite
28
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-6.5%
Volatility
49.3%
Max Drawdown
-25.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
17.42P/E
P/B0.26
P/S0.14
ROE1.5%
ROA0.9%
EPS160.71
BVPS10597.10
Gross Margin6.2%
Net Margin0.8%
D/E0.69
Current Ratio1.88
Rev Growth15.4%
Profit Growth388.2%
EV/EBITDA9.84
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
31.8M
Charter Capital
318.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ITQ — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Văn Quang
Indiv
11.9%
3.8 trieu
Phạm Thị Tươi
Indiv
2.0%
472.300
Nguyễn Thị Bích Hạnh
Indiv
1.4%
453.700
Nguyễn Thị Cầm Thơ
Indiv
0.9%
214.200
Phạm Quang Trung
Indiv
0.4%
131.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Quảng11.9%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Quang Trung0.4%
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Diệu Linh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Quyết Tiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Ngọc Phấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Anh Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thị Hoài Thương
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Cao Liên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Bảo Dương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Cao Thị Huyên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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