SFI

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đại lý Vận tải SAFI

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

27.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

23.500

Current

27.500

Gap

-14.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

82.92%

Kd(1-t)

6.51%

D/(D+E)

17.08%

WACC

11.23%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

24.374

50%DCF Value

22.627

Blended Intrinsic

23.500

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SFI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.91

Moderate

DSRI

0.894

GMI

0.874

AQI

1.051

SGI

1.017

DEPI

1.073

SGAI

1.017

TATA

0.138

LVGI

0.869

SFI exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.9118, indicating potential earnings manipulation concerns as it falls below the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 41.7 suggests weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.9118 indicates potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 41.7/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests significant issues in cash flow management.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.8940 indicates that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales.
Receivables quality score of 78.9/100 shows strong management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Nmvt, holds a substantial 50.7% stake, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest given the concentration of ownership.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SFI's financial disclosures and consider conducting further due diligence on cash flow management practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.33

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.03

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-8.0%

Volatility

26.1%

Max Drawdown

-22.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.95P/E

P/B0.95

P/S0.66

ROE12.0%

ROA10.1%

EPS3526.92

BVPS29558.92

Gross Margin16.3%

Net Margin8.3%

D/E0.17

Current Ratio4.59

Rev Growth1.7%

Profit Growth17.2%

EV/EBITDA5.98

Div Yield7.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

26.0M

Charter Capital

260.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SFI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Nmvt

Inst

50.7%

13.2 trieu

Lê Dung Nhi

Indiv

10.0%

2.4 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Dũng

Indiv

8.2%

2.1 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Anh

Indiv

5.6%

1.4 trieu

Công ty CP Đầu Tư Toàn Việt

Inst

4.3%

460.510

Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity

Inst

4.1%

1.1 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

3.5%

504.159

nguyen-cao-cuong

Indiv

2.4%

258.888

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

2.2%

518.110

Nguyễn Hải Nguyên

Indiv

1.8%

464.500

Trần Nguyên Hưng

Indiv

1.6%

170.002

nguyen-thanh-tuyen

Indiv

1.4%

330.000

Nhữ Đình Thiện

Indiv

1.3%

310.500

Phùng Thị Ngà

Indiv

1.1%

119.190

Đặng Trần Phúc

Indiv

1.0%

258.600

Phan Thông

Indiv

0.8%

88.215

Ngô Trung Hiếu

Indiv

0.8%

118.840

Bùi Quang Cảnh

Indiv

0.6%

69.886

Lê Thị Thanh Tụ

Indiv

0.6%

65.065

Nguyễn Hữu Cự

Indiv

0.5%

58.210

Phạm Sỹ Nhượng

Indiv

0.4%

45.280

Hoàng Đăng Doanh

Indiv

0.4%

43.332

Đặng Thị Thuý Hằng

Indiv

0.2%

39.500

Trần Mạnh Hà

Indiv

0.1%

14.592

Board & Management

Nguyễn Hoàng Dũng8.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hoàng Anh5.6%

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thanh Tuyền1.4%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Nhữ Đình Thiện1.3%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Trần Phúc1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trường Nam

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Vũ Văn Trực

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Huyền Linh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Ngọc Đào

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

CCT99.0%PHP92.6%CCR80.9%QNP75.0%CDN75.0%SGP65.5%VLG56.7%CPI56.6%VSA51.0%NAP51.0%VNA51.0%VOS3 links

Computed 12/04/2026