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Consumer sector

VLC

Consumer
Tổng Công ty Chăn nuôi Việt Nam - Công ty Cổ phần
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
13.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
9.807
Current
13.700
Gap
-28.4%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
89.30%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.03%
x
D/(D+E)
10.70%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF117.05B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
117.05B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
9.807
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VLC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

42
Weak
Accrual Quality
86
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.24
Moderate
DSRI
0.980
GMI
1.211
AQI
0.700
SGI
1.052
DEPI
1.104
SGAI
0.921
TATA
0.034
LVGI
0.903

VLC exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.2441, which is below the manipulation threshold. While the company has a strong ownership concentration with 68.9% held by a reputable institution, the overall earnings quality score of 41.6/100 raises significant concerns regarding cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2441 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 41.6/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue metrics (0.0/100), suggests significant issues with earnings sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong institutional ownership of 68.9% by Công ty Cổ phần Sữa Việt Nam may provide stability and oversight.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by a single institution reduces the risk of shareholder disputes but may also lead to governance challenges if the interests of minority shareholders are overlooked.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VLC's financial disclosures for signs of improvement in earnings quality and cash flow metrics before considering any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.56
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.99
Negative
Composite
25
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-20.8%
Volatility
26.1%
Max Drawdown
-27.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6333.96P/E
P/B0.87
P/S0.98
ROE0.0%
ROA0.0%
EPS2.27
BVPS16550.92
Gross Margin21.5%
Net Margin0.0%
D/E0.12
Current Ratio6.14
Rev Growth5.3%
Profit Growth-99.1%
EV/EBITDA38.06
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
212.5M
Charter Capital
2124.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VLC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Sữa Việt Nam
Inst
68.9%
146.5 trieu
Phạm Thị Linh
Indiv
3.0%
6.3 trieu
Đỗ Hoàng Phương
Indiv
2.9%
6.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Thái Minh Group
Inst
2.6%
1.7 trieu
Trần Công Chiến
Indiv
0.2%
120.000
Bùi Đức Hoàn
Indiv
0.2%
102.600
Board & Management
Trần Công Chiến0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng đầu tư
Trần Trí Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Huy Hoàng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trịnh Công Tuyến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đăng Khoa
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Quốc Dũng
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Huy Bích
Giám đốc Tài chính/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Hà Thị Diệu Thu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Mai Kiều Liên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Công Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Thị Hà
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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