CMG

Technology

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Công nghệ CMC

Công nghệ Thông tin/Phần mềm & Dịch vụ Máy tínhCT

29.150

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

22.736

Current

29.150

Gap

-22.0%

ModelDCF PE BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghệ Thông tin→Technology

Classified as technology because ICB sector "Công nghệ Thông tin" maps to the technology group

ModelDCF + P/E Blend

Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF uses the slowest growth decay (0.05) recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

44.97%

Kd(1-t)

6.87%

D/(D+E)

55.03%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.84%

Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Max fair P/E→13.69x

Valuation

60%DCF Value

20.854

40%P/E Value

25.561

Blended Intrinsic

22.736

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CMG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.38

Moderate

DSRI

1.033

GMI

0.978

AQI

0.966

SGI

1.148

DEPI

1.506

SGAI

0.976

TATA

-0.012

LVGI

1.126

CMG demonstrates a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -2.3789, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation. However, the high SGI of 1.1484 and low revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raise concerns about growth sustainability and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.1484 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition or reliance on non-recurring revenue streams.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 83.8/100 reflects strong accruals and cash conversion metrics, indicating good operational efficiency.
Institutional ownership at 63.3% suggests a level of confidence from sophisticated investors.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional investors, which can provide stability. However, the concentration of ownership with Samsung at 29.8% may lead to governance risks if their interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Monitor CMG closely for any changes in revenue recognition practices and growth sustainability. Consider a cautious investment approach, focusing on operational performance and potential shifts in institutional sentiment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.13

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.78

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.1%

Volatility

30.0%

Max Drawdown

-32.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

15.61P/E

P/B1.94

P/S0.68

ROE13.1%

ROA4.5%

EPS1867.14

BVPS15042.50

Gross Margin18.7%

Net Margin4.3%

D/E1.52

Current Ratio1.58

Rev Growth14.8%

Profit Growth26.7%

EV/EBITDA10.78

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

233.0M

Charter Capital

2329.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Công nghệ Thông tin

Industry (ICB L3)

Phần mềm & Dịch vụ Máy tính

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ Máy tính

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CMG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Samsung Sds Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd

Inst

29.8%

63.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Mvi

Inst

13.5%

28.5 trieu

Trương Ngọc Lân

Indiv

5.1%

3.4 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Mỹ Linh

Inst

5.1%

10.8 trieu

Tập Đoàn Geleximco

Inst

4.9%

9.2 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

4.9%

9.2 trieu

Tập đoàn Bảo Việt

Inst

3.7%

7.9 trieu

Nguyễn Minh Đức

Indiv

2.3%

4.9 trieu

Nguyễn Phước Hải

Indiv

1.6%

3.5 trieu

Nguyễn Trung Chính

Indiv

1.2%

2.5 trieu

Hà Thế Minh

Indiv

1.0%

678.400

Nguyễn Mỹ Hương

Indiv

0.3%

728.243

Tạ Hoàng Linh

Indiv

0.3%

604.359

nguyen-kim-cuong

Indiv

0.2%

237.226

Nguyễn Hồng Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

231.790

Phạm Hồng Hải

Indiv

0.1%

87.500

Hoàng Xuân Hiếu

Indiv

0.1%

87.500

Hoàng Ngọc Hùng

Indiv

0.1%

118.056

Board & Management

Nguyễn Minh Đức2.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Phước Hải1.6%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Trung Chính1.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thanh Sơn

Giám đốc Tài chính/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Giám đốc khối

Hồ Thanh Tùng

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hồng Phương

Kế toán trưởng

Hà Thế Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Việt Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Danh Lam

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thành Nam

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trương Tuấn Lâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thị Phương Thanh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lee Jay Seok

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Kim Jung Wuk

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Trung Chính

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VEC88.0%AGR74.9%BVS2 links ABI52.1%TGP24.3%HES19.4%TDF15.7%ASM11.2%HDG10.0%TPB2 links MIG9.9%PVV9.9%

Computed 12/04/2026