HES
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HES
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2024
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2020
HES exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a high DSRI and low earnings quality score. While the Beneish M-Score indicates a lower likelihood of manipulation, the overall earnings quality metrics raise significant red flags.
- DSRI of 3.3985 indicates significant increases in receivables compared to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
- Earnings Quality Score of 39.0/100, particularly low scores in receivables (0.0/100) and revenue (0.0/100), indicate poor earnings quality and potential manipulation.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.0792 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting that outright earnings manipulation may be less likely.
The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, with Tổng Công ty Du Lịch Hà Nội holding 45.9%, which may provide stability but also raises concerns about potential influence over management decisions that could prioritize short-term gains.
Investors should closely monitor HES's financial disclosures and earnings reports for signs of improvement in earnings quality, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer trends emerge.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HES — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate