HDG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Hà Đô

Bất động sảnCT

29.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

23.457

Current

29.800

Gap

-21.3%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

53.26%

Kd(1-t)

6.93%

D/(D+E)

46.74%

WACC

10.48%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.42%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

22.973

60%DCF Value

23.780

Blended Intrinsic

23.457

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HDG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.32

Moderate

DSRI

1.079

GMI

0.929

AQI

1.375

SGI

1.025

DEPI

0.944

SGAI

0.648

TATA

-0.027

LVGI

0.923

The Beneish M-Score of -2.3184 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 66.2/100 reflects some concerns, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality, which may warrant further scrutiny.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 66.2/100, particularly low revenue quality score of 0.0/100, indicating potential issues in revenue recognition.
SGAI of 0.6483 suggests aggressive selling, which may indicate a reliance on promotional tactics rather than sustainable sales growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.3184 is well below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
High accrual quality score of 89.1/100 indicates that reported earnings are more likely to reflect actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with Nguyễn Trọng Thông holding 31.8%, which could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, institutional investors like PYN Elite Fund (10.0%) provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of ownership concentration. A deeper analysis of cash flow sustainability and margin improvement strategies is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.73

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.34

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+11.8%

Volatility

39.3%

Max Drawdown

-29.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.03P/E

P/B1.46

P/S3.55

ROE10.9%

ROA4.9%

EPS1907.13

BVPS18378.19

Gross Margin63.0%

Net Margin25.3%

D/E0.76

Current Ratio1.62

Rev Growth1.4%

Profit Growth102.6%

EV/EBITDA7.23

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

370.0M

Charter Capital

3699.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HDG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Trọng Thông

Indiv

31.8%

117.8 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

10.0%

37.0 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Tô

Indiv

8.1%

29.8 trieu

CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund

Inst

4.9%

14.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Vietcap

Inst

4.9%

11.9 trieu

nguyen-phuong-dong

Indiv

4.8%

14.6 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

3.7%

11.3 trieu

Hoàng Thị Phương Điểu

Indiv

2.8%

10.2 trieu

Venner Group Limited

Inst

1.8%

2.9 trieu

Phan Quang Bình

Indiv

1.3%

901.854

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

1.3%

3.9 trieu

Nguyễn Trọng Minh

Indiv

1.2%

4.3 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Toàn

Indiv

0.9%

611.156

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

0.7%

1.1 trieu

Trần Thu Hoài

Indiv

0.4%

328.087

the ch/se asia investment holdings (singapore) private limited

Inst

0.3%

200.000

Nguyễn Trọng Hiếu

Indiv

0.2%

352.654

Đào Hữu Khanh

Indiv

0.2%

644.895

Nguyễn Thị Xuân Lan

Indiv

0.2%

538.802

Lê Thanh Hiền

Indiv

0.2%

147.868

nguyen-hoang-trung

Indiv

0.2%

605.000

Samsung Vietnam Securities Master Investment Trust

Inst

0.2%

488.000

Chế Đình Tương

Indiv

0.1%

143.994

Đỗ Văn Bình

Indiv

0.1%

116.414

KB Vietnam Focus Balanced Fund

Inst

0.1%

320.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Trọng Thông31.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Tô8.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trọng Minh1.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trọng Hiếu0.2%

Phó Giám đốc

Đào Hữu Khanh0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Đình Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Xuân Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Trọng Khiêm

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Vũ Thị Chinh

Trưởng phòng Tài chính

PHẠM HỒNG HIẾU

Kế toán trưởng

CHU TUẤN ANH

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Đình Dũng

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Cao Thị Tâm

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Đinh Văn Võ

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hữu Vinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Trung Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hà

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Ngô Xuân Quyền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Tạ Thị Lương

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Top connections

PGS31.8%IDP14.3%TDM2 links HCD13.2%ASM11.2%MIG10.0%DSE10.0%YEG10.0%TCT10.0%ACC10.0%BIC10.0%CII10.0%

Computed 12/04/2026