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Construction sector

CMS

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn CMH Việt Nam
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
7.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.735
Current
7.100
Gap
-19.2%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Enterprise Value
BVPS
11.471
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
11.471

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CMS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

36
Weak
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.57
Elevated
DSRI
0.786
GMI
0.668
AQI
1.570
SGI
1.686
DEPI
0.823
SGAI
0.729
TATA
0.091
LVGI
1.040

CMS exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings quality and potential manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.5708, which is close to the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 35.9/100, particularly the zero scores in cash conversion and revenue quality, raises further alarms about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.5708, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is close to the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 35.9/100, particularly with an eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100, suggesting severe issues with cash flow relative to earnings.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.7861 indicates a lower risk of revenue manipulation through inventory, which is a positive sign.
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of receivables, indicating potential efficiency in collections.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 24.3%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of multiple individual shareholders could also indicate a lack of institutional oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on CMS, particularly focusing on cash flow management and earnings sustainability. Monitoring future earnings reports and cash flow statements will be critical to assess any improvements or deteriorations in financial health.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.89
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.84
Negative
Composite
24
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-17.7%
Volatility
34.7%
Max Drawdown
-31.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.73P/E
P/B0.62
P/S0.53
ROE11.4%
ROA5.2%
EPS1238.11
BVPS11470.90
Gross Margin11.3%
Net Margin9.2%
D/E1.08
Current Ratio3.31
Rev Growth68.6%
Profit Growth537.1%
EV/EBITDA13.48
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
25.5M
Charter Capital
254.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CMS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Phạm Minh Phúc
Indiv
24.3%
6.2 trieu
Phạm Văn Tùng
Indiv
5.0%
1.3 trieu
Phạm Hồng Mạnh
Indiv
4.9%
850.000
Phạm Văn Xuyên
Indiv
4.9%
1.3 trieu
Đặng Minh Toàn
Indiv
2.4%
314.540
Kim Ngọc Nhân
Indiv
1.2%
300.000
nguyen-huy-hoang
Indiv
1.0%
253.000
Nguyễn Thị Hoa
Indiv
0.9%
116.200
Chu Đình Thế
Indiv
0.7%
97.880
Đinh Thị Thủy
Indiv
0.4%
114.686
Đào Tiến Dương
Indiv
0.4%
72.795
Hà Văn Choang
Indiv
0.1%
17.000
Công ty Cổ phần Cavico Xây Dựng Cầu Hầm
Inst
0.1%
13.500
Board & Management
Phạm Minh Phúc24.3%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Kim Ngọc Nhân1.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Thị Thủy0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đào Tiến Dương0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Ngọc Trường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Thị Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Tú
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Văn Trung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Duy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hữu Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lương Sơn Hùng
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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