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Cyclicals sector

L61

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Lilama 69-1
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
1.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
10.622
Current
1.400
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA48.48B
Fair EV/EBITDA7.6x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
48.48B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
7.6x
-
Net Debt
287.97B
=
Equity Value
10.622
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L61

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

33
Weak
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
4
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
40
Revenue Quality
88

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.52
Low Risk
DSRI
1.656
GMI
1.225
AQI
0.816
SGI
0.724
DEPI
0.798
SGAI
0.827
TATA
-0.090
LVGI
1.086

L61 exhibits several concerning indicators of potential financial manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.5195, which is below the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 33.2/100, especially low cash conversion and receivables metrics, further highlight risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.5195 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 33.2/100, with a cash conversion score of only 3.8/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • Revenue quality score of 88.1/100 indicates strong revenue recognition practices.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam, holds a significant 41.1% stake, indicating potential influence over corporate governance, which may lead to conflicts of interest given the state-owned enterprise (SOE) context.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly regarding cash flow and receivables management, before considering any investment in L61.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
-0.53
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-1.34
Negative
Composite
38
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-72.0%
Volatility
116.2%
Max Drawdown
-77.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
-0.24P/E
P/B0.00
P/S0.11
ROE1692.3%
ROA-8.2%
EPS-7407.95
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin5.6%
Net Margin-45.3%
D/E-21.89
Current Ratio0.90
Rev Growth-27.6%
Profit Growth-14.9%
EV/EBITDA33.88
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
7.6M
Charter Capital
75.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L61 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam
Inst
41.1%
3.1 trieu
Cao Đài
Indiv
15.4%
1.2 trieu
Lê Đức Lộc
Indiv
6.1%
461.148
Ngô Quang Quý
Indiv
3.9%
272.000
Ngô Quốc Thịnh
Indiv
2.9%
200.200
Công ty TNHH Chứng khoán Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Ngoại thương Việt Nam
Inst
1.0%
72.821
Hà Văn Mỳ
Indiv
0.9%
60.000
nguyen-van-dat
Indiv
0.7%
54.301
Bùi Quang Vinh
Indiv
0.7%
46.400
Phạm Thế Kiên
Indiv
0.6%
44.820
Ngô Quang Hưng
Indiv
0.6%
42.247
Trần Đình Đại
Indiv
0.5%
39.600
Phạm Văn Tùng
Indiv
0.5%
35.000
Ngô Phú Phong
Indiv
0.4%
31.447
Dương Thanh Phương
Indiv
0.4%
31.447
Lưu Văn Toản
Indiv
0.4%
27.108
Nguyễn Thị Quế
Indiv
0.4%
27.000
Đào Thanh Bình
Indiv
0.3%
20.300
Phương Đình Thanh
Indiv
0.3%
20.000
Đỗ Tá Hà
Indiv
0.2%
12.800
Lê Việt Bắc
Indiv
0.1%
11.006
Nguyễn Thị Kim Thoa
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Board & Management
Cao Đài15.4%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Đạt0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Thế Kiên0.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Ngô Quang Hưng0.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Ngô Phú Phong0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Thanh Phương0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Việt Bắc0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Minh Tâm
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Ngọc Doanh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Cao Trường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Anh Đức
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Xuân Goòng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Phạm Đình San
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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