SHI

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Quốc tế Sơn Hà

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

14.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.525

Current

14.100

Gap

-53.7%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→462.99B

Fair EV/EBITDA→12.3x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

462.99B

Fair EV/EBITDA

12.3x

Net Debt

4572.56B

Equity Value

6.525

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SHI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.34

Moderate

DSRI

1.063

GMI

0.991

AQI

0.840

SGI

1.047

DEPI

1.098

SGAI

0.931

TATA

0.020

LVGI

1.014

The Beneish M-Score of -2.336 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 41.0/100 highlights significant concerns, particularly in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 41.0/100 indicates poor overall earnings quality, particularly with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggesting severe issues in converting earnings into cash.
Receivables management is weak with an eq_receivables score of 23.5/100, indicating potential issues in collecting receivables and possible revenue recognition concerns.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.336 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.
The SGI of 1.0467 indicates modest revenue growth, which could be a positive sign in a competitive market.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration among a few individuals and one institution, with the largest shareholder holding only 7.8%. This could lead to potential governance issues and lack of alignment with minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and receivables management, as these are critical areas of concern. Consider a cautious approach to investment until improvements in earnings quality metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.47

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.23

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-2.5%

Volatility

36.8%

Max Drawdown

-23.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

47.20P/E

P/B1.29

P/S0.20

ROE2.8%

ROA0.5%

EPS298.75

BVPS10900.36

Gross Margin8.5%

Net Margin0.4%

D/E3.74

Current Ratio1.11

Rev Growth5.4%

Profit Growth-34.1%

EV/EBITDA12.55

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

170.3M

Charter Capital

1702.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SHI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Sản Xuất Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển Hoàng Hà

Inst

7.8%

13.2 trieu

Phạm Anh Tuấn

Indiv

6.0%

5.2 trieu

Đinh Văn Mạnh

Indiv

5.5%

4.8 trieu

Đặng Hồng Nhung

Indiv

5.0%

8.1 trieu

Dương Đình Lương

Indiv

5.0%

4.2 trieu

Trần Đa Linh

Indiv

5.0%

4.3 trieu

Nguyễn Thương Huyền

Indiv

4.9%

8.0 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Hoa

Indiv

4.9%

7.9 trieu

Lê Phương Trang

Indiv

4.9%

7.9 trieu

Đinh Văn Quân

Indiv

4.8%

4.1 trieu

Vietnam Holding Ltd

Inst

4.8%

2.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Chứng khoán Liên minh Việt Nam

Inst

4.7%

1.7 trieu

Phạm Minh Công

Indiv

4.6%

3.9 trieu

Đoàn Thị Tuyết

Indiv

4.3%

6.9 trieu

Trần Ngọc Long

Indiv

3.9%

3.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán MB

Inst

3.1%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Xuân Phú

Indiv

2.3%

1.3 trieu

Lưu Thị Nhâm

Indiv

2.1%

1.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ Đầu tư Pacific Bridge

Inst

1.8%

1.0 trieu

Đỗ Tuấn Thịnh

Indiv

1.2%

990.000

Board & Management

Lê Vĩnh Sơn10.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Phương Nam

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Tấn Hải

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Thành Tâm

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Lương

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Kiều Đức Lâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thị Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thúy

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Trần Kim Dung

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trương Văn Tiến

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Gấm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nhữ Văn Hoan

Phó Giám đốc Điều hành/Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính

Phạm Thế Hùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đào Nam Phong

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

SHG3 links TST17.0%PLA14.1%SHC13.9%PPI8.3%LPT7.4%EME6.2%DBC6.2%PSC6.0%RAT6.0%VE16.0%VCS2 links

Computed 12/04/2026