CRE

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Bất động sản Thế Kỷ

Bất động sảnCT

7.650

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.280

Current

7.650

Gap

+47.5%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

78.84%

Kd(1-t)

5.07%

D/(D+E)

21.16%

WACC

11.80%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

15.329

60%DCF Value

8.580

Blended Intrinsic

11.280

Value Decomposition

38%

62%

Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CRE

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.99

Low Risk

DSRI

0.999

GMI

0.757

AQI

1.102

SGI

0.882

DEPI

0.948

SGAI

1.304

TATA

-0.053

LVGI

1.023

The Beneish M-Score of -2.9892 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 44.7/100, particularly low scores in receivables, margin, and revenue metrics, suggests potential concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 44.7/100 indicates significant weaknesses in revenue recognition and margin sustainability, with scores of 0.0/100 in receivables, margin, and revenue metrics.
SGAI of 1.3038 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.9892 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating some level of financial integrity.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash management despite lower earnings quality.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Thế Kỷ, holds a significant 49.9% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's earnings quality metrics and consider a cautious approach due to the elevated risk signals, particularly in revenue recognition and spending efficiency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.25

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.16

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+9.9%

Volatility

40.0%

Max Drawdown

-42.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

47.32P/E

P/B0.62

P/S2.62

ROE1.3%

ROA1.0%

EPS161.68

BVPS12262.89

Gross Margin24.8%

Net Margin5.5%

D/E0.28

Current Ratio2.92

Rev Growth-11.8%

Profit Growth82.6%

EV/EBITDA20.89

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

463.7M

Charter Capital

4636.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CRE — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Thế Kỷ

Inst

49.9%

231.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đầu tư I.P.A

Inst

10.9%

50.6 trieu

Vietnam Master Holding 2 Limited

Inst

4.7%

4.5 trieu

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

3.5%

2.8 trieu

Phạm Thanh Hùng

Indiv

3.4%

15.6 trieu

Nguyễn Trung Vũ

Indiv

1.8%

8.5 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

1.4%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Minh Hồi

Indiv

0.7%

3.1 trieu

Nguyễn Thọ Tuyển

Indiv

0.5%

392.000

aquila spc ltd

Inst

0.4%

280.008

Trần Thị Tuyết Mai

Indiv

0.1%

604.898

Nguyễn Thị Thành

Indiv

0.1%

610.472

nguyen-quynh-mai

Indiv

0.1%

98.000

Board & Management

Phạm Thanh Hưng3.4%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trung Vũ1.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Hồi0.7%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thanh0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Quỳnh Mai0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Doãn Thị Thu Hương

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Mậu Minh Tuyến

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Lê Thị Lan

Kế toán trưởng

Chu Hữu Chiến

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Nhượng

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Vương Văn Tường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Hoàng Oanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Vui

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Anh Hương

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

VND25.8%HOT20.0%VFR12.5%XHC11.3%DHT10.9%XMC10.9%VCS10.9%GND7.5%DCT6.5%DQC5.6%ACB5.5%ATA5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026