VFR

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Thuê tàu

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

10.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

26.477

Current

10.000

Gap

+164.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

87.20%

Kd(1-t)

5.93%

D/(D+E)

12.80%

WACC

11.40%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

20.957

50%DCF Value

31.997

Blended Intrinsic

26.477

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VFR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.31

Moderate

DSRI

0.258

GMI

0.817

AQI

0.895

SGI

1.275

DEPI

1.013

SGAI

0.580

TATA

0.127

LVGI

0.772

VFR's Beneish M-Score of -2.3133 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 33.2/100, particularly the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 33.2/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100 indicating severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
Significant SGI of 1.2755 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual cash flows.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.3133 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, suggesting a degree of reliability in reported earnings.
High receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for liquidity.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding over 75% of the shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider a deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions. A cautious approach is advised given the elevated risk profile.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.69

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.10

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-12.2%

Volatility

54.9%

Max Drawdown

-28.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.50P/E

P/B0.53

P/S1.41

ROE7.2%

ROA6.1%

EPS1534.08

BVPS21682.48

Gross Margin15.8%

Net Margin18.9%

D/E0.15

Current Ratio6.11

Rev Growth27.5%

Profit Growth-10.8%

EV/EBITDA-0.53

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.0M

Charter Capital

150.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VFR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Và Dịch Vụ Du Lịch Ba Đình

Inst

19.4%

2.9 trieu

Vũ Thị Hạnh

Indiv

16.7%

2.5 trieu

Công ty TNHH MTV Thương Mại Và Đầu Tư Hưng Phú

Inst

13.9%

2.1 trieu

Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Và Đầu Tư Hoà An

Inst

13.1%

2.0 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Thành

Indiv

12.5%

1.9 trieu

Vũ Thị Kim Thành

Indiv

10.1%

1.5 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Quân đội

Inst

4.8%

715.000

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX

Inst

3.9%

577.000

Board & Management

Trần Bình Phú

Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Anh Tú

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Thành

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Kiều Mạnh Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Thắng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thanh Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Năng Tuyến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Nguyên Đặng

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thanh Tuyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quang Thoại

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Hà Nguyên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

MIG67.7%MBS66.8%HCT24.7%ONW24.5%VIT18.4%HAX16.7%PTM16.7%PHH15.9%MSB14.4%DCT12.5%NHH12.5%MNB12.5%

Computed 12/04/2026