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XHC

Công ty Cổ phần Xuân Hòa Việt Nam

VietnamConsumerHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngHàng gia dụngUPCOMCT
16.800
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
16.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
19.617

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
64.36%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.38%
x
D/(D+E)
35.64%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→881.27M
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
19.617
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow881.3 triệuone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
9.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
10.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
11.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
12.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·345473524436310311256234257142182
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·27332416142312371223168
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000010000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·145266314266155184146114744539
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·21187235136522121231452
Net Inventories
·1661691801531381019673606572
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1681711831531381019673606573
Other current assets
·76512311.0114
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·319203213183178187159131113179250
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·148161600000459120
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·1342200000459120
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·135152109127140160133106939996
Tangible fixed assets
·134151108127140159132105939896
Leased assets
·0000000.40000
Intagible fixed assets
·0.60.910.30.40.600.40.30.30.5
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·3127271616161616131616
Investment in joint ventures
·20000000000
Investments in associate companies
·2927271616161616131616
Other non-current assets
·47122014101094517
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·47122014101094517
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·663676736619488498415365370321431
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·25831142234224424418213796108230
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2432803843352312271701379662127
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·150172319208138109834821017
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·920141811116212025
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·15313881316120046103
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·15313881316120000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·405365314277243254233228274213202
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·405365314277243254233228274213202
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·211211211211211211211211211201201
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·194154103663343221763120.5
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·663676736619488498415365370321431
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·211211211211211211211211211201201

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
36
Weak
Accrual Quality
59
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
11
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.30 · 83rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.97
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.607
GMI
1.071
AQI
3.655
SGI
0.898
DEPI
0.850
SGAI
1.016
TATA
0.105
LVGI
0.847

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.1420th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
23.4%92nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3015 (83rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.97, signalling that its accounting profile has become more aggressive relative to peers. Earnings-quality sub-scores show severe weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue quality (0.0/100 each) and low margin quality (10.7/100), while receivables quality is strong (100.0/100); the Altman Z-Score is 2.95 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.3015 (83rd Vietnam percentile; YoY change +1.97): the company sits well above most Vietnamese peers on the Beneish metric and the M-Score has moved materially year-over-year, indicating a shift in accounting-related signals rather than stable historical behaviour.
  • Asset-quality index (AQI) = 3.6548: a high AQI indicates a rising share of non-core assets (e.g. non-operating receivables, long-term receivables, prepayments) relative to total assets, consistent with the 23.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 23.4% of total assets (92nd Vietnam percentile): an unusually large portion of assets is in prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables — this shifts asset composition away from ordinary operating items.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.14 (20th Vietnam percentile): reported profits are not being converted into operating cash flow on a multi-year basis, which is reflected in the Earnings Quality overall (36.3/100) and the Cash conversion sub-score (0.0/100).
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 10.7/100: these scores indicate weak quality of reported revenue and margins — potential volatility or one-off components in reported top-line and profitability.
  • TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.1049 (10.49%): non-cash accruals are a material share of the balance sheet, which can magnify earnings that are not cash-backed.
  • DSRI = 0.6068 (Days Sales Receivable Index <1): a DSRI below 1 means receivables grew less than sales (or were written down), which combined with the large non-trade receivables balance calls for scrutiny of the composition of receivables.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100: standard trade receivables appear to be of good quality in isolation, indicating collectible trade receivables where disclosed.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent reported no net loss in the last three years: the statutory balance-sheet indicators show the company is not in an accumulated-loss position and has positive equity.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9: while not strongly positive, this is a neutral signal rather than outright operational deterioration, and some fundamental checks (profitability, liquidity, leverage) are not uniformly weak.
  • SGI = 0.8983 and DEPI = 0.8496: revenue growth is not aggressive (SGI <1) and the rate of depreciation has not slowed (DEPI <1), which reduces one common motive for earnings inflation via slower depreciation.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is concentrated: institutional investors hold ~37.1% (VAC Việt Nam 25.7% and Bảo Việt fund 11.4%), and three individuals together hold 27.8% (Nguyễn Hoàng Hải 11.3%, Nguyễn Việt Anh 8.4%, Trần Thị Thu Hà 8.1%). This mix implies meaningful block ownership and potential influence by large shareholders or related-party group interests.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) for 'prepayments', 'loans and advances to customers/related parties' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance-sheet note to the 23.4% figure flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle and reconcile movements year-over-year.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow (cash-flow statement) to reported net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to see drivers of the 3-year cash conversion ratio of -0.14 and identify the largest non-cash adjustments and working-capital movements.
  • Inspect the related-party disclosures and the schedules for receivables/loans to related parties to determine whether a material portion of the 23.4% non-trade receivables is intercompany or related-party financing.
  • Read the auditor's report and the notes on significant accounting policies (particularly revenue recognition, measurement of receivables and classification of prepayments/loans) for any emphasis-of-matter, qualification, or policy changes that would affect revenue- and accrual-related quality scores.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.95
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.01
Negative
Composite
70
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.13×Turnover0.74×Leverage1.64=ROE16.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
−10.3%
Volatility
49.2%
Max Drawdown
−40.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.45P/E
P/B
0.87
P/S
0.72
ROE
16.9%
ROA
9.7%
EPS
3.081
BVPS
19.211
Gross Margin
14.1%
Net Margin
13.2%
D/E
0.41
Current Ratio
1.42
Rev Growth
−10.0%
Profit Growth
+23.4%
EV/EBITDA
16.18
Div Yield
6.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
21.1M
Charter Capital
211B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng gia dụng
Sub-industry
Thiết bị gia dụng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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