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Cyclicals sector

VTZ

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất và Thương mại Nhựa Việt Thành
Hóa chấtCT
20.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.969
Current
20.000
Gap
-60.1%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Equity Value Bvps Floor
BVPS
11.384
x
Discount
70%
=
Floor Value
11.384

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VTZ

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

49
Weak
Accrual Quality
56
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
23
Revenue Quality
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.16
High Risk
DSRI
1.019
GMI
1.308
AQI
4.092
SGI
1.388
DEPI
1.045
SGAI
0.805
TATA
0.116
LVGI
1.107

VTZ exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a high GMI of 1.3080 and a low earnings quality score of 49.0, indicating potential earnings manipulation and poor cash conversion. The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among a few individuals, which raises governance concerns.

Red Flags
  • GMI of 1.3080 indicates a significant likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 49.0/100 suggests poor earnings quality, particularly with an eq_cash_conv of 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly individuals, with the largest holding at 24.1%, indicating a lack of diversification and potential for conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider conducting further due diligence on VTZ's financial practices and governance structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.12
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.72
Positive
Composite
42
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+20.8%
Volatility
12.0%
Max Drawdown
-9.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
30.11P/E
P/B1.77
P/S0.31
ROE6.0%
ROA1.8%
EPS667.52
BVPS11384.46
Gross Margin4.3%
Net Margin1.0%
D/E2.74
Current Ratio1.13
Rev Growth38.7%
Profit Growth-13.4%
EV/EBITDA18.01
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
76.2M
Charter Capital
761.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VTZ — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Phúc Lợi
Indiv
24.1%
18.4 trieu
Phan Văn Quân
Indiv
22.6%
17.2 trieu
Nguyễn Phúc Lợi
Indiv
21.5%
0
Nguyễn Văn Tuấn
Indiv
20.2%
15.4 trieu
Trần Bích Ngoan
Indiv
5.0%
2.4 trieu
Võ Phương Thùy
Indiv
5.0%
2.4 trieu
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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