HNB

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bến xe Hà Nội

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

12.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

16.160

Current

12.100

Gap

+33.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

82.31%

Kd(1-t)

4.93%

D/(D+E)

17.69%

WACC

10.91%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

15.181

50%DCF Value

17.138

Blended Intrinsic

16.160

Value Decomposition

38%

62%

Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HNB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.59

Low Risk

DSRI

0.830

GMI

0.898

AQI

1.650

SGI

1.064

DEPI

0.866

SGAI

0.990

TATA

-0.039

LVGI

1.064

HNB's Beneish M-Score of -2.586 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly in receivables and revenue quality, which could indicate potential issues in revenue recognition and cash flow.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 67.4/100 is moderate, but eq_receivables at 31.0/100 and eq_revenue at 26.4/100 are particularly low, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.
The DSRI of 0.8304 indicates a decrease in days sales in receivables, which could imply aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

The GMI of 0.8975 and AQI of 1.6502 suggest that the company is managing its gross margin and accruals relatively well.
A cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 67.1% held by Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Hà Nội, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HNB's revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on cash flow sustainability. Given the elevated risk level, a cautious approach is advised until clearer signals of financial stability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.66

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.04

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+27.5%

Volatility

87.8%

Max Drawdown

-35.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

16.05P/E

P/B1.05

P/S0.87

ROE8.6%

ROA7.0%

EPS1004.73

BVPS11793.75

Gross Margin16.3%

Net Margin7.0%

D/E0.23

Current Ratio3.58

Rev Growth6.4%

Profit Growth11.8%

EV/EBITDA3.80

Div Yield5.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.5M

Charter Capital

95.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HNB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Hà Nội

Inst

67.1%

6.4 trieu

Công Ty Cổ Phần Hợp Tác Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển

Inst

16.4%

1.6 trieu

Board & Management

Thạch Thị Kim Nga

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Đoàn Kim Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Công Bằng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Đoàn Duy Thái

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lý Thị Kim Thoa

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Phạm Mạnh Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Hữu Tuyến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thúy Hạnh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Anh Toàn

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Hồng Sơn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

NWT94.3%HHN67.1%BLN67.1%VNT5.0%ADP4.1%

Computed 12/04/2026