BLN
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BLN
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2024
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2024
The Beneish M-Score of -1.3261 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 56.7 suggests potential concerns, particularly with cash conversion and revenue recognition.
- Earnings Quality Score of 56.7 indicates moderate risk, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and revenue recognition at 0.0/100, which may suggest aggressive accounting practices.
- DSRI of 1.4508 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, raising concerns about revenue recognition and potential collection issues.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.3261 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation compared to the threshold.
- Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow.
The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Hà Nội, holds a significant 35.0% stake, indicating potential influence over corporate governance. However, the low individual ownership among other shareholders may limit accountability.
Monitor cash conversion metrics closely and assess the company's revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious investment approach, given the moderate risk profile and reliance on a single major shareholder.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for BLN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate