HPA

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Nông nghiệp Hoà Phát

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

38.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

113.956

Current

38.300

Gap

+197.5%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

67.66%

Kd(1-t)

7.08%

D/(D+E)

32.34%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→1904.47B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

1904.47B

Growth Rate

2.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

113.956

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.53

Low Risk

DSRI

0.706

GMI

0.806

AQI

0.954

SGI

1.175

DEPI

0.864

SGAI

0.893

TATA

-0.170

LVGI

1.053

HPA's Beneish M-Score of -3.5267 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, suggesting a relatively stable financial reporting environment. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 44.1/100, particularly low margins and revenue quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 44.1/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly with margins and revenue quality at 0.0/100.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.5267 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating a potentially reliable financial reporting environment.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Hòa Phát holding 84.5%, which may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HPA's earnings quality metrics and consider diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks associated with concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

9/9

Strong

Z-Score

7.74

Safe Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.95P/E

P/B3.51

P/S1.37

ROE50.1%

ROA34.1%

EPS6262.12

BVPS12385.18

Gross Margin26.3%

Net Margin19.7%

D/E0.48

Current Ratio1.78

Rev Growth17.5%

Profit Growth53.6%

EV/EBITDA5.05

Div Yield12.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

285.0M

Charter Capital

2850.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HPA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Hòa Phát

Inst

84.5%

240.9 trieu

Trần Thị Thu Hiền

Indiv

0.1%

321.028

Top connections

ONW21.8%CNN10.1%HHP8.3%TDT6.4%QNC5.6%CCA5.4%PPE2 links DNC4.9%HDA4.9%SBD4.8%SDP4.5%NAB4.3%

Computed 12/04/2026