HDA

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Hãng sơn Đông Á

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

6.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

9.667

Current

6.600

Gap

+46.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

69.67%

Kd(1-t)

6.89%

D/(D+E)

30.33%

WACC

10.59%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

8.136

50%DCF Value

11.197

Blended Intrinsic

9.667

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HDA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.47

Moderate

DSRI

1.197

GMI

0.970

AQI

0.648

SGI

1.020

DEPI

1.423

SGAI

1.059

TATA

-0.018

LVGI

0.962

HDA exhibits several concerning metrics indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.4705, which suggests a lower likelihood of manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 48.3/100, especially the extremely low scores in receivables, margin, and revenue, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.4705 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 48.3/100, with 0.0/100 in eq_margin and eq_revenue, suggests severe issues in revenue recognition and profit margins.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.1966 indicates that inventory growth is slightly higher than sales growth, which could be a sign of cautious inventory management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the largest shareholder holding 14.1%. This concentration can lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HDA's earnings reports and cash flow statements for signs of improvement in revenue recognition and margin stability. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of financial health emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.89

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.46

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+42.6%

Volatility

51.6%

Max Drawdown

-21.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.60P/E

P/B0.51

P/S0.61

ROE7.0%

ROA4.4%

EPS815.58

BVPS12057.04

Gross Margin38.6%

Net Margin8.0%

D/E0.44

Current Ratio2.47

Rev Growth-4.4%

Profit Growth54.8%

EV/EBITDA4.30

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

27.6M

Charter Capital

276.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HDA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Lê Như Ngọc

Indiv

14.1%

3.9 trieu

Mai Anh Tám

Indiv

8.3%

2.3 trieu

Trần Thị Thu Hiền

Indiv

4.9%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Hồng Thái

Indiv

4.7%

1.1 trieu

nguyen-viet-linh

Indiv

4.5%

518.900

Nguyễn Văn Sơn

Indiv

4.5%

1.2 trieu

Đào Thị Lan Anh

Indiv

1.4%

374.764

Vũ Thanh Huyền

Indiv

1.1%

126.300

Phạm Thị Diễm Ly

Indiv

1.1%

122.222

Trần Mạnh Thắng

Indiv

0.7%

76.300

Hoàng Trung Kiên

Indiv

0.6%

72.374

nguyen-khac-dung

Indiv

0.4%

118.800

Nguyễn Văn Long

Indiv

0.4%

97.200

An Phương Thảo

Indiv

0.3%

39.749

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Huyền

Indiv

0.3%

31.778

Đỗ Trần Mai

Indiv

0.2%

64.348

Bùi Duy Dương

Indiv

0.2%

49.120

nguyen-thi-loan

Indiv

0.1%

32.400

Board & Management

Mai Anh Tám8.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Sơn4.5%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Trung Kiên0.6%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Trần Mai0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thoa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Văn Tuân

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Tuấn Kình

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

An Hà My

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Quốc Quyền

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Thị Thanh Nam

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

BHC14.0%HCM14.0%CRC8.3%L626.3%PPE5.2%S555.0%LGL5.0%VPC4.9%ITD2 links GLT4.9%PGD2 links HPA4.9%

Computed 12/04/2026