Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 14.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 17.946
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 26 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.7715th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.5%24th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.50×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.3471 (94th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.86, signalling that its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year-on-year; note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality is strong (93.0/100) and receivables quality is perfect (100.0/100), but overall earnings-quality is low (43.2/100) driven by a cash-conversion score of 0.0/100 and zero scores for margin and revenue quality. The Altman Z-Score is 0.35 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 0.3471 (94th Vietnam peer percentile): measures a composite of eight ratios used to detect earnings manipulation; a high percentile indicates more aggressive accounting versus Vietnamese peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +2.86: measures the change in the same composite; a large positive move is an additional cue that accounting behaviour has shifted materially.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 6.1001: part of the M-Score family, this measures deterioration in gross margins (values >1 indicate margins worsening); a very large value here is a concern for margin weakness or margin-related adjustments.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.7220: measures sales growth; values >1 indicate growing sales (high growth can stress quality of revenue recognition).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.1382: measures changes in depreciation policy/estimates; >1 suggests slower depreciation (potentially boosting reported profits).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0175: measures the contribution of accruals to earnings; small but positive accruals alongside other M components merit attention.
- Altman Z-Score 0.35 (distress zone): a multivariate score estimating distance to bankruptcy; 0.35 indicates low buffer per the Altman test.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores of 0.0/100 for cash conversion, margin quality and revenue quality: these specific measures indicate profits are not being converted to cash, and there are severe weaknesses in margin and revenue-related metrics.
- Vietnam cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.77 (15th percentile): measures whether reported profits convert into operating cash; negative and low percentile indicates profits did not translate into cash over three years.
- Accumulated losses = 0.50x paid-in capital: measures cumulative losses relative to equity contributed; half of paid-in capital in accumulated losses is a balance-sheet concern versus peers.
- Accruals quality = 93.0/100: measures the extent to which accruals appear reliable; a high score indicates reported earnings are not driven by unusual accruals.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets (24th percentile): the first is a direct earnings-quality metric and the second shows low exposure to related-party/prepayment/long-term receivables as a share of assets, which supports collectability and normal trade-cycle treatment.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral): a mixed but not dire set of fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency measures).
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and the parent has zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025: these are explicit facts from the statements showing the company is not reporting statutory parent-year net losses in sequence and has positive equity.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH MTV Phát triển Công nghiệp Tân Thuận holds 40.5% and Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Xây Dựng Tuấn Lộc holds 33.3%, combining for 73.8% institutional control. The top two holders are institutional entities (one is an industrial development company, which in Vietnam may have state or quasi-state links), and there are no director-deal registrations listed in the provided data (director-deal registrations are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and the cash-flow-from-operations note to the net profit line to verify the components driving the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -0.77).
- Inspect the receivables and other receivables/relation-party transactions notes to confirm the composition of the 0.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note to assess whether the change implied by DEPI = 1.1382 arises from altered useful lives or depreciation methods and the related impact on profit.
- Examine the revenue recognition policy and disaggregated revenue/sales notes (and any related-party revenue schedules) to understand drivers of SGI = 1.7220 and the revenue-quality score of 0.0/100.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.01
- P/S
- 15.41
- ROE
- 2.9%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- EPS
- 208
- BVPS
- 7.324
- Gross Margin
- 28.5%
- Net Margin
- 21.8%
- D/E
- 0.04
- Current Ratio
- 0.97
- Rev Growth
- −4.7%
- Profit Growth
- −85.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2949.60
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 60.0M
- Charter Capital
- 600B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT