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Cyclicals sector

IRC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Công nghiệp
Hóa chấtCT
4.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.652
Current
4.700
Gap
+62.8%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Ebitda Bvps Floor
BVPS
10.931
x
Discount
70%
=
Floor Value
10.931

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — IRC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

13
Poor
Accrual Quality
33
Cash Conversion
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019

-2.21
Moderate
DSRI
0.388
GMI
1.519
AQI
1.045
SGI
1.305
DEPI
0.853
SGAI
0.875
TATA
0.060
LVGI
1.073

IRC exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.215, which is below the manipulation threshold. While the earnings quality score of 48.7 indicates some strengths, the low cash conversion rate and revenue quality raise significant red flags.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.215 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 48.7 reveals weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition and cash flow.
  • High SGI of 1.3046 indicates aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual cash flows.
Positive Signals
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable.
  • Low DSRI of 0.3880 indicates that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai holding 65.8%, which may limit minority shareholder influence and increase risks of decisions favoring majority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly regarding cash flow management and revenue recognition practices, before considering any investment in IRC.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.34
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-1.15
Negative
Composite
37
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-2.4%
Volatility
84.3%
Max Drawdown
-41.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.05P/E
P/B0.43
P/S14.02
ROE8.6%
ROA7.9%
EPS931.32
BVPS10931.42
Gross Margin-166.3%
Net Margin277.7%
D/E0.09
Current Ratio8.33
Rev Growth-76.7%
Profit Growth23.0%
EV/EBITDA-3.10
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
17.5M
Charter Capital
175.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for IRC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai
Inst
65.8%
11.5 trieu
Vũ Kim Liên
Indiv
7.6%
1.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Xây Dựng Tuấn Lộc
Inst
7.5%
1.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Capella
Inst
7.5%
1.3 trieu
bùi anh tuấn
Indiv
7.0%
1.2 trieu
Board & Management
NGUYỄN ĐĂNG TẤN
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Tấn Điềm
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Hùng
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Thị Hồng Loan
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Thị Cẩm Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Cao Trí
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Minh Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Nam Hưng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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