LGC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Cầu đường CII

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

57.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

12.466

Current

57.700

Gap

-78.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

24.23%

Kd(1-t)

7.61%

D/(D+E)

75.77%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.40%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

47.454

50%DCF Value

-22.521

Blended Intrinsic

12.466

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LGC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.51

Low Risk

DSRI

0.791

GMI

1.068

AQI

1.118

SGI

1.040

DEPI

0.951

SGAI

0.906

TATA

0.005

LVGI

0.973

LGC presents a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -2.5086, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin quality, which could pose risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 65.9/100 indicates potential issues, particularly with eq_margin at 19.2/100 and eq_revenue at 13.4/100, suggesting low profitability and revenue recognition concerns.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.5086 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with institutional investors holding 93.7% of shares, which may reduce the risk of management misalignment but could also lead to governance issues if interests diverge.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor earnings quality metrics, particularly revenue recognition and margins, while considering the strong institutional backing as a stabilizing factor. A cautious approach is advised until improvements in earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.71

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.06

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+12.3%

Volatility

38.7%

Max Drawdown

-32.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

24.93P/E

P/B2.90

P/S4.89

ROE12.3%

ROA2.2%

EPS2406.74

BVPS20700.69

Gross Margin63.2%

Net Margin19.6%

D/E2.81

Current Ratio0.86

Rev Growth3.9%

Profit Growth-4.0%

EV/EBITDA12.09

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

212.1M

Charter Capital

2121.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LGC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Hạ tầng Kỹ thuật Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Inst

47.8%

101.4 trieu

Metro Pacific Tollways Corporation

Inst

40.9%

86.7 trieu

Công ty TNHH Thương mại Đầu tư CII

Inst

5.0%

10.6 trieu

Công ty TNHH Metro Pacific Tollways Việt Nam

Inst

4.1%

8.7 trieu

Nguyễn Quốc Vĩnh

Indiv

2.1%

484.550

Công ty TNHH MTV Dịch Vụ và Đầu tư CII

Inst

2.0%

4.3 trieu

Lê Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

2.0%

1.5 trieu

Nguyễn Mai Bảo Thoa

Indiv

1.1%

824.250

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Xây Dựng Tuấn Lộc

Inst

1.1%

2.1 trieu

Board & Management

Trần Ngọc Tiến

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Rodrigo E.Franco

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Christopher Daniel C. Lizo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Vũ Hoàng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Chính

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Francis Gerard Elizaga Aberilla

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lương Kim Diên An

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Dương Thị Long Nghi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lương Thị Thu Yến

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Trung Hiếu

Giám đốc Tài chính

Đặng Quang Phục

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Dương Trường Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Quốc Bình

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

NBB3 links PTL47.8%HCM47.8%SII47.8%HPI33.3%TQN7.6%IRC7.5%DP34.7%TIN3.3%SDT3.2%VNX2.1%AMC2.0%

Computed 12/04/2026