LHG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Long Hậu

Bất động sảnCT

28.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

39.817

Current

28.300

Gap

+40.7%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

54.16%

Kd(1-t)

6.35%

D/(D+E)

45.84%

WACC

10.28%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.54%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

40.728

60%DCF Value

39.209

Blended Intrinsic

39.817

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LHG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.12

Moderate

DSRI

0.955

GMI

0.970

AQI

0.990

SGI

1.072

DEPI

0.956

SGAI

0.933

TATA

0.072

LVGI

0.959

LHG exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1175, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 50.1/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100 indicating severe issues in converting earnings into cash.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests potential overstatement of revenues or aggressive accounting practices.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.1175, which is below the manipulation threshold, suggesting lower risk of earnings manipulation.
High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top shareholder holding 48.7%, may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, impacting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, considering a cautious approach to investment in LHG due to the elevated risks in earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.19

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.59

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-9.7%

Volatility

17.6%

Max Drawdown

-35.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.99P/E

P/B0.80

P/S2.11

ROE16.7%

ROA9.2%

EPS5847.74

BVPS36724.45

Gross Margin53.3%

Net Margin42.3%

D/E0.78

Current Ratio3.03

Rev Growth63.1%

Profit Growth56.0%

EV/EBITDA4.34

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

50.0M

Charter Capital

500.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LHG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Phát triển Công nghiệp Tân Thuận

Inst

48.7%

24.3 trieu

Công ty Jaccar Holdings

Inst

17.0%

4.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Việt Âu

Inst

12.7%

3.3 trieu

Lumen Vietnam Fund

Inst

4.9%

2.4 trieu

Trần Anh Viễn

Indiv

4.5%

2.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Phát Triển Nam Sài Gòn

Inst

4.5%

1.2 trieu

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

2.6%

1.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Khu công nghiệp Hiệp Phước

Inst

2.0%

975.485

Công ty Cổ phần In và Bao bì Minh Phúc

Inst

1.7%

452.715

KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund

Inst

1.1%

548.600

Kim Investment Funds - Kim Vietnam Growth Fund

Inst

0.8%

394.400

Quỹ Đầu tư Năng động Eastspring Investments Việt Nam

Inst

0.5%

271.790

Đoàn Hồng Dũng

Indiv

0.5%

125.414

Phạm Thị Như Anh

Indiv

0.5%

229.980

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Thủy sản Miền Trung

Inst

0.3%

137.910

Board & Management

Phạm Thị Như Anh0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Anh Huy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Võ Tấn Thịnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mã Văn Khanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Đoàn Út Ba

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Thị Kim Thi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Đình Thu Nhi

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Mai Đăng Khôi

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Vũ Mạnh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Hồng Sơn

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tấn Phong

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Công Hiệp

Giám đốc Tài chính

Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Mai

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Top connections

HPI48.7%TTG20.6%SJM13.3%FTM10.2%KSD9.8%TDH6.2%BCC5.0%SMC4.9%FCN4.9%MWG4.9%HBC4.7%GDT4.1%

Computed 12/04/2026