HPM
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HPM
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2023
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2023
HPM exhibits significant red flags indicating potential financial manipulation, particularly highlighted by a Beneish M-Score of 13.2294, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 28.5/100, coupled with poor cash conversion metrics, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of 13.2294 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
- Earnings Quality Score of 28.5/100 suggests poor earnings reliability, particularly with eq_cash_conv and eq_receivables both at 0.0/100.
- The DSRI of 19.0328 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which could suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
The top shareholders are primarily individuals, with the largest holding at 21.6%, which may lead to concentrated decision-making power and potential conflicts of interest. This structure can increase volatility and risk if key shareholders decide to liquidate their positions.
Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on HPM, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to avoid or limit exposure to this stock until clearer financial transparency is established.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HPM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate