TDP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Thuận Đức

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

29.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

14.868

Current

29.800

Gap

-50.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

25.02%

Kd(1-t)

5.53%

D/(D+E)

74.98%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.28%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

24.023

50%DCF Value

5.713

Blended Intrinsic

14.868

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TDP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49

Moderate

DSRI

0.858

GMI

1.109

AQI

1.198

SGI

1.087

DEPI

0.978

SGAI

0.988

TATA

-0.018

LVGI

1.011

TDP exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4852, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal some concerns, particularly in profit margins, which could signal operational inefficiencies.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 86.9/100 is strong, but the eq_margin of 44.8/100 indicates potential issues with profitability.
The SGI of 1.0873 suggests a growth rate that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about future earnings stability.

Positive Signals

The eq_cash_conv and eq_receivables scores of 100.0/100 indicate excellent cash conversion and receivables management, suggesting strong operational efficiency.
A low DSRI of 0.8579 indicates that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign for operational health.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, particularly Nguyễn Đức Cường at 34.6%, which could lead to governance risks if their interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Monitor TDP's operational performance closely, especially regarding profit margins and growth sustainability. Consider engaging with management to understand strategies for improving profitability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.75

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.04

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.2%

Volatility

56.1%

Max Drawdown

-25.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

26.59P/E

P/B2.35

P/S0.55

ROE9.2%

ROA2.4%

EPS1120.79

BVPS12681.40

Gross Margin8.2%

Net Margin2.1%

D/E3.00

Current Ratio1.08

Rev Growth8.7%

Profit Growth5.3%

EV/EBITDA13.78

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

93.7M

Charter Capital

937.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TDP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Đức Cường

Indiv

34.6%

32.4 trieu

Ngô Kim Dung

Indiv

8.2%

7.7 trieu

BẾ THỊ TUYẾT

Indiv

5.1%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Chính

Indiv

4.0%

3.6 trieu

Trần Đăng Duy

Indiv

3.6%

3.9 trieu

nguyen-kim-anh

Indiv

1.6%

1.4 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Thịnh

Indiv

1.4%

1.3 trieu

Lê Văn Quang

Indiv

0.9%

552.688

Nguyễn Văn Trường

Indiv

0.8%

722.706

nguyen-thi-lai

Indiv

0.6%

519.260

nguyen-anh-duc

Indiv

0.5%

134.000

nguyen-thi-vinh

Indiv

0.4%

386.355

Ngô Thúy Nga

Indiv

0.4%

346.173

Ngô Thị Yên

Indiv

0.2%

173.086

nguyen-thi-hang

Indiv

0.2%

160.407

Nguyễn Văn Tuyến

Indiv

0.2%

138.469

VƯƠNG ĐÌNH HOÀNG

Indiv

0.1%

25.000

Nguyễn Đức Hùng

Indiv

0.1%

25.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Đức Cường34.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Kim Dung8.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Kim Anh1.6%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Quang0.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Trưởng0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Quang Sỹ

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Thị Hằng

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Văn Chỉ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Huy Hoàng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

BÙI THẾ QUYỀN

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Vân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Văn Huỳnh

Giám đốc Tài chính

Hoàng Thị Hằng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DZM34.6%L6234.6%ACB34.6%TSA20.0%HBS17.6%MPC16.1%STH10.1%SHC10.0%LM39.7%VLS9.7%HMS8.2%VNX7.4%

Computed 12/04/2026