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Utilities sector

HPW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Hải Phòng
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
22.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
16.616
Current
22.900
Gap
-27.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS850
Payout ratio54.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
850
Base Growth
3.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
16.616
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HPW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

75
Good
Accrual Quality
60
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
51
Revenue Quality
62

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.02
Low Risk
DSRI
0.751
GMI
0.987
AQI
1.202
SGI
1.078
DEPI
0.927
SGAI
0.995
TATA
-0.099
LVGI
0.950

HPW exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.0202, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the ownership structure is heavily dominated by the state, which may introduce risks related to governance and operational efficiency.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 74.7/100, with a low eq_margin of 51.3/100, suggesting potential concerns in profit sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.0202 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The state ownership at 80.6% raises concerns regarding governance and decision-making processes, potentially leading to inefficiencies or misalignment with minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HPW's operational performance and governance practices, while considering a cautious approach due to the concentrated state ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.42
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.17
Positive
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+35.7%
Volatility
129.0%
Max Drawdown
-29.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.98P/E
P/B1.63
P/S1.29
ROE13.9%
ROA7.2%
EPS2019.03
BVPS14884.20
Gross Margin38.0%
Net Margin10.8%
D/E0.82
Current Ratio4.03
Rev Growth7.8%
Profit Growth46.2%
EV/EBITDA5.80
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
74.2M
Charter Capital
742.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HPW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Thành Phố Hải Phòng
State
80.6%
59.8 trieu
Vũ Hồng Dương
Indiv
0.7%
496.600
Lê Chí Thanh
Indiv
0.3%
200.000
Trần Văn Dương
Indiv
0.2%
165.000
Cao Văn Quý
Indiv
0.2%
150.000
Vũ Anh Đức
Indiv
0.2%
150.000
Vũ Nhân Hòa
Indiv
0.2%
152.100
Trần Việt Cường
Indiv
0.1%
100.000
Đặng Hữu Dũng
Indiv
0.1%
86.400
Board & Management
Vũ Hồng Dương0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Văn Dương0.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Cao Văn Quý0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Việt Cường0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Hữu Dũng0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đăng Ninh
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Anh Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Xuân Hà
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lê Thị Hương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lã Thị Thu Huyền
Phó Phòng
Nguyễn Minh Hoàng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thị Thanh Điệp
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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