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Construction sector

TOT

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Transimex Logistics
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
15.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
23.316
Current
15.800
Gap
+47.6%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
53.24%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.36%
x
D/(D+E)
46.76%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.72%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
8.613
50%DCF Value
38.019
Blended Intrinsic
23.316
Value Decomposition
34%
66%
Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TOT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

63
Fair
Accrual Quality
93
Cash Conversion
65
Receivables
39
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
3

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.19
High Risk
DSRI
1.649
GMI
1.013
AQI
2.303
SGI
1.137
DEPI
0.919
SGAI
0.882
TATA
0.018
LVGI
1.164

TOT exhibits an elevated risk of financial manipulation, as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -1.1879, which is above the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 62.6 suggests some concerns, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could impact the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.1879 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show a low receivables score of 38.6/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue collection and recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Strong earnings quality score of 93.0/100 in accruals indicates good management of non-cash earnings.
  • High margin score of 100.0/100 reflects strong profitability relative to revenue.
Ownership Risk

The dominant ownership by Công ty Cổ phần Transimex at 82.3% raises concerns about minority shareholder influence and potential lack of transparency in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on TOT's revenue recognition practices and monitor changes in its earnings quality metrics. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of financial stability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.57
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.02
Negative
Composite
59
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+1.4%
Volatility
20.2%
Max Drawdown
-19.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.99P/E
P/B1.03
P/S0.50
ROE17.6%
ROA9.9%
EPS2639.38
BVPS15332.74
Gross Margin20.0%
Net Margin8.4%
D/E0.88
Current Ratio1.37
Rev Growth13.7%
Profit Growth5.1%
EV/EBITDA3.84
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.2M
Charter Capital
92.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TOT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Transimex
Inst
82.3%
7.6 trieu
Bùi Minh Tuấn
Indiv
1.8%
165.624
Bùi Tuấn Ngọc
Indiv
1.2%
112.118
Lê Duy Hiệp
Indiv
1.0%
54.820
nguyen-chi-duc
Indiv
0.9%
80.000
Nguyễn Văn Quý
Indiv
0.4%
32.549
Trịnh Anh Tuấn
Indiv
0.3%
23.006
Tôn Thất Hưng
Indiv
0.2%
22.506
Phạm Anh Tuấn
Indiv
0.1%
8.800
Board & Management
Bùi Minh Tuấn1.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Duy Hiệp1.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Chí Đức0.9%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Anh Tuấn0.1%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Đức Nguyên
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thanh Tùng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Huy Diệu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trịnh Phương Thảo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
NGUYỄN HẢI NHẬT
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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