LGL

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Đô thị Long Giang

Bất động sảnCT

4.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.446

Current

4.800

Gap

+76.0%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

49.07%

Kd(1-t)

4.88%

D/(D+E)

50.93%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

16.893

60%DCF Value

-4.657

Blended Intrinsic

8.446

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LGL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.16

Moderate

DSRI

0.542

GMI

1.263

AQI

1.123

SGI

1.104

DEPI

1.639

SGAI

0.242

TATA

0.054

LVGI

0.989

LGL's Beneish M-Score of -2.1572 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, the earnings quality score of 40.1/100 reveals significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition. The ownership structure shows a concentration of shares among a few individuals and an institution, which could pose risks related to governance and decision-making.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 40.1/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 indicating severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
SGAI at 0.2423 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not be translating into revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.1572 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation compared to the threshold of -1.78.
Receivables quality score at 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include a significant institutional stake (24.1%) and a high concentration of individual ownership, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and governance challenges.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and consider engaging with management regarding earnings quality improvements. Given the elevated risk level, a cautious approach is advisable until clearer signals of operational stability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.53

Distress Zone

Sharpe

1.52

Excellent

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+85.6%

Volatility

43.5%

Max Drawdown

-14.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

16.87P/E

P/B0.46

P/S6.44

ROE2.8%

ROA1.3%

EPS367.50

BVPS13514.29

Gross Margin1.7%

Net Margin38.2%

D/E1.04

Current Ratio1.18

Rev Growth10.4%

Profit Growth134.1%

EV/EBITDA-146.18

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

51.5M

Charter Capital

515.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LGL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Đầu Tư Long Giang

Inst

24.1%

12.4 trieu

Lê Hà Giang

Indiv

20.7%

10.7 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Sơn

Indiv

5.0%

2.5 trieu

Lê Thị Ái Loan

Indiv

4.9%

395.000

Hồ Kim Vân

Indiv

2.5%

1.3 trieu

Đinh Thị Nga

Indiv

2.2%

1.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán BIDV

Inst

2.1%

412.174

Nguyễn Xuân Phương

Indiv

1.8%

360.000

Ngô Thị Thu Hiền

Indiv

1.1%

227.542

Ngô Thị Thanh Hòa

Indiv

1.0%

505.325

Trần Ngọc Tuấn

Indiv

0.5%

101.999

Lê Hương Giang

Indiv

0.4%

200.048

Trần Hải Anh

Indiv

0.3%

167.700

Đỗ Năng Tuyến

Indiv

0.3%

54.427

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà

Indiv

0.2%

106.864

Nguyễn Toàn Thắng

Indiv

0.2%

107.024

Nguyễn Mạnh Hà

Indiv

0.1%

72.521

Lưu Thị Thanh Nga

Indiv

0.1%

52.840

Phạm Thu Huyền

Indiv

0.1%

20.140

Board & Management

Lê Hà Giang20.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Toàn Thắng0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Mạnh Hà0.1%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lưu Thị Thanh Nga0.1%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Anh Tâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Đình Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Mai Thanh Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Sinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Quốc Trung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Loan

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Mai Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Hưng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Tú

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

TLH19.6%PLP2 links PVH14.8%VRC14.5%KTL14.4%BHC14.0%HCM14.0%RCC3 links PLA2 links GGG2 links TTB2 links HCI7.4%

Computed 12/04/2026