RCC
Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Công trình Đường sắt Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 20.385
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.4663rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 21.3%91st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting indicators show mixed concerns: the Beneish M-Score is -1.6943 (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting than most domestic peers and a year-over-year change of -3.87 which signals a notable move in the score. Specific component signals are elevated for days-sales-in-receivables (DSRI = 1.5982) and gross margin deterioration (GMI = 1.4847), while total accruals (TATA = 0.0526) and the abnormal quality index (AQI = 0.7766) are less suggestive of extreme accrual manipulation. Other distress and quality metrics are mixed: Altman Z-Score = 1.23 (distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6943 (75th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M-Score aggregates eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation; being at the 75th percentile means RCC shows more aggressive accounting indicators than three-quarters of Vietnamese peers, and the year-over-year change of -3.87 indicates the score moved materially compared with last year.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.5982. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a rise can indicate revenue recognition or collectability issues). A DSRI well above 1 suggests receivables expanded relative to sales.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.4847. GMI > 1 measures deteriorating gross margins year-over-year, which can pressure managers to use accounting choices to sustain reported profits.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 21.3% of total assets (91st percentile among VN non-financials). This line (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) is unusually large versus peers and may indicate material non-trade receivables or related-party financing embedded in receivables.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.23 (distress zone). The Z-Score combines profitability, liquidity, leverage and activity metrics; 1.23 places the company in the zone that historically associates with higher bankruptcy risk.
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These zero scores flag weak quality in converting profits to cash and in revenue/receivables/margin sustainability as measured by that framework.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.0526. TATA measures accrual intensity; a relatively low positive TATA suggests accruals are present but not extremely large in the year measured.
- AQI (Abnormal Quality Index) = 0.7766. AQI below 1 in the Beneish components tends to indicate fewer unusual non-operating items relative to sales movements.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.8429 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8875. SGI < 1 shows sales did not accelerate (reducing one common pressure to manipulate), while DEPI < 1 suggests depreciation expense did not suddenly decline relative to prior period (less incentive from asset-life changes).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9. While not strongly positive, a midrange F-Score shows neither clear deterioration across the nine fundamental checks nor strong deterioration in operating fundamentals.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals and a listed securities firm: five top holders together exceed ~53% (Nguyễn Đức Giang 13.0%, Trương Minh Ngọc 11.8%, Nguyễn Duy Kiên 10.1%, SHS 9.7%, Nguyễn Hải Duy 8.5%). A listed group holding 54.8% of HMR (control) is noted in the holder lists. Director-deal disclosures show one purchase registration (100,000 shares, +0.31% of shares outstanding) and no sale registrations in the last year; registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 receivables and other receivable line items (note and schedule) to prior years: quantify the components of the 21.3% "receivables outside the trade cycle" (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and identify related-party balances and maturities.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cashflow statement and the accruals note for the three-year period used in the cash-conversion metric (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.46). Check the composition of operating cash flows (collections from customers, changes in working capital) in the cashflow note.
- Inspect the revenue recognition policy and the aging of trade receivables and bad-debt provisions in the financial statement notes to assess drivers of DSRI = 1.5982 and the Receivables-quality = 0.0/100 score.
- Examine the related-party transactions note and the loans/advances to (or from) affiliates schedule to see whether the large non-trade receivables or prepayments relate to group activity or intra-group financing.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.67
- P/S
- 0.97
- ROE
- 2.3%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- EPS
- 271
- BVPS
- 11.880
- Gross Margin
- 6.6%
- Net Margin
- 1.5%
- D/E
- 1.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.23
- Rev Growth
- −15.7%
- Profit Growth
- +29.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 38.25
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 32.1M
- Charter Capital
- 321B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT