NHA

Construction

Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà và Đô thị Nam Hà Nội

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

13.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

18.316

Current

13.500

Gap

+35.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

63.24%

Kd(1-t)

6.31%

D/(D+E)

36.76%

WACC

10.03%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

24.620

50%DCF Value

12.013

Blended Intrinsic

18.316

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NHA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.18

Moderate

DSRI

0.275

GMI

1.418

AQI

1.108

SGI

1.838

DEPI

1.363

SGAI

0.686

TATA

-0.016

LVGI

1.187

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1758 indicates a lower risk of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.8384 and low AQI of 1.1079 raise concerns about revenue growth sustainability and overall earnings quality.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.8384 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
Low AQI of 1.1079 indicates potential issues with earnings quality, particularly in margin and revenue metrics.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion rate of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash flow management.
High eq_accrual score of 93.5/100 suggests that the company is managing its accruals effectively.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 22.8%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue growth trends and earnings quality metrics, while considering a cautious approach due to ownership concentration risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.69

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.84

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-21.7%

Volatility

34.7%

Max Drawdown

-39.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.08P/E

P/B1.20

P/S2.43

ROE14.2%

ROA8.6%

EPS1624.89

BVPS12244.25

Gross Margin39.3%

Net Margin26.8%

D/E0.73

Current Ratio0.59

Rev Growth83.8%

Profit Growth25.3%

EV/EBITDA8.31

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

64.8M

Charter Capital

647.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NHA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-minh-hoan

Indiv

22.8%

14.8 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Đạo

Indiv

5.3%

3.5 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Kiên

Indiv

4.9%

3.2 trieu

Phạm Văn Tuấn

Indiv

4.8%

1.1 trieu

Peter Eric Dennis

Indiv

4.7%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Ngọc Hương

Indiv

3.1%

2.0 trieu

Nguyễn Thành Mỹ

Indiv

2.4%

1.5 trieu

Tạ Ngọc Nhất

Indiv

2.1%

1.4 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Minh

Indiv

1.5%

1.0 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Hùng

Indiv

1.0%

630.277

Nguyễn Đắc Long

Indiv

0.8%

535.466

Phạm Ngọc Duyến

Indiv

0.1%

41.046

Cù Đức Ngọc

Indiv

0.1%

91.666

Đặng Văn Lành

Indiv

0.1%

52.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Minh Hoàn22.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hoàng Đạo5.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Tạ Ngọc Nhất2.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Hùng1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Ngọc Duyến0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Cù Đức Ngọc0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Văn Lành0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Thanh Trọng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Văn Đồng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thế Kiên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hồng Thái

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Văn Nghĩa

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DST22.8%UNI18.8%EBS6.9%KKC6.1%ADC6.0%EID5.6%PIA5.2%HMH5.0%HVA5.0%ACB4.9%HTV4.9%NDX4.9%

Computed 12/04/2026