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Cyclicals sector

KKC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Thành Thái
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT
6.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.433
Current
6.200
Gap
+19.9%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Equity Value Bvps Floor
BVPS
10.619
x
Discount
70%
=
Floor Value
10.619

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KKC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

6
Poor
Accrual Quality
0
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
57

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

3.53
High Risk
DSRI
1.495
GMI
1.223
AQI
13.901
SGI
0.627
DEPI
0.876
SGAI
1.253
TATA
0.103
LVGI
0.598

KKC exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 3.526, well above the threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 25.3/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, further raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 3.526 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 25.3/100 suggests poor earnings reliability.
  • Receivables metric at 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • SGI of 0.6274 suggests a decrease in sales growth, which may indicate a conservative approach to revenue recognition.
  • Institutional ownership at 85.7% may provide some stability and oversight.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by T&d Group at 85.7% poses risks of potential conflicts of interest and lack of minority shareholder protection, common in Vietnamese SOEs.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in KKC, particularly focusing on the company's cash flow and revenue recognition practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.29
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.24
Positive
Composite
31
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-3.3%
Volatility
73.9%
Max Drawdown
-38.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.38P/E
P/B0.64
P/S1.93
ROE15.8%
ROA8.3%
EPS1552.63
BVPS10618.78
Gross Margin11.7%
Net Margin44.0%
D/E1.09
Current Ratio1.89
Rev Growth-79.3%
Profit Growth17.1%
EV/EBITDA-105.33
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.2M
Charter Capital
52.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KKC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn T&d Group
Inst
85.7%
4.5 trieu
Peter Eric Dennis
Indiv
6.1%
285.000
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thúy
Indiv
5.0%
234.000
Đinh Văn Hương
Indiv
4.6%
215.000
Đỗ Văn Thanh
Indiv
2.2%
104.335
Phạm Văn Miên
Indiv
2.1%
97.200
Phạm Văn Thìn
Indiv
0.1%
6.022
Ngô Bắc Hà
Indiv
0.1%
5.000
Board & Management
Bùi Thị Non
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đoàn Trung Hà
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Trọng Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Hội đồng đầu tư
Đào Trọng Khôi
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Tương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Hồng Liên
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Mạc Thị Nhung
Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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