HTV

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Logistics Vicem

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

11.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

13.464

Current

11.000

Gap

+22.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

83.42%

Kd(1-t)

6.16%

D/(D+E)

16.58%

WACC

11.20%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

11.800

50%DCF Value

15.127

Blended Intrinsic

13.464

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HTV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.76

Low Risk

DSRI

0.840

GMI

0.668

AQI

1.000

SGI

0.981

DEPI

0.726

SGAI

1.039

TATA

0.004

LVGI

0.745

HTV exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7567, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 71.1/100 reflects strong accruals and cash conversion metrics, although revenue and margin quality are concerning.

Red Flags

SGAI at 1.0385 suggests potential inefficiencies in sales and administrative expenses.
EQ margin of 26.6/100 indicates weak profitability relative to revenue.

Positive Signals

Strong accrual quality score of 98.5/100 indicates effective management of non-cash earnings.
High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests reliable collection practices.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership, with Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holding 50.1%, which may provide stability but also indicates potential for concentrated decision-making.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's revenue quality closely, particularly given the low scores in margin and revenue metrics. Consider engaging with management to understand strategies for improving profitability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.91

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.53

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+29.3%

Volatility

42.7%

Max Drawdown

-16.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.75P/E

P/B0.47

P/S0.57

ROE4.9%

ROA4.1%

EPS1210.65

BVPS25168.97

Gross Margin14.7%

Net Margin5.8%

D/E0.14

Current Ratio7.71

Rev Growth-1.9%

Profit Growth73.0%

EV/EBITDA6.32

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

13.1M

Charter Capital

131.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HTV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

50.1%

6.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Xi măng VICEM Hà Tiên

Inst

14.3%

1.4 trieu

Nguyễn Quốc Huy

Indiv

10.0%

1.3 trieu

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

6.0%

600.000

Tập đoàn Vận tải Quốc tế Halfdan Grieg (Na Uy)

Inst

5.0%

504.000

Peter Eric Dennis

Indiv

4.9%

641.364

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

4.6%

607.500

Đào Thị Thới

Indiv

4.6%

600.000

Quách Đình Dương

Indiv

4.0%

403.590

nguyen-thi-hong-nhung

Indiv

3.0%

390.000

Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh

Inst

2.6%

260.000

Công đoàn Công ty Cổ phần Xi măng Hà Tiên 1

Inst

0.6%

56.040

Board & Management

Đỗ Văn Huân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Trung Hiếu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thu

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Hồ Sĩ An

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Hưng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Nguyên Quỳnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Minh Ngọc

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Huệ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Giám đốc

Trần Thị Lý

Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%BCC73.1%HOM71.1%DXV2 links VTV62.9%TBC60.4%TMX59.6%HCT53.9%TXM2 links BPC50.1%BXH50.1%

Computed 12/04/2026