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Consumer sector

NHT

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất và Thương mại Nam Hoa
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng hóa giải tríCT
11.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
41.979
Current
11.000
Gap
+281.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
65.16%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.65%
x
D/(D+E)
34.84%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF51.92B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
51.92B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
41.979
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NHT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

60
Fair
Accrual Quality
58
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.22
Low Risk
DSRI
0.869
GMI
0.730
AQI
0.683
SGI
1.081
DEPI
0.729
SGAI
0.878
TATA
-0.106
LVGI
0.752

The Beneish M-Score of -3.2249 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 59.6 suggests potential concerns, particularly in revenue and margin recognition, which may warrant further scrutiny.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating significant issues in revenue recognition and profit margins.
  • The SGI of 1.0811 suggests that sales growth is outpacing earnings growth, which could be a sign of aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates that the company is effectively converting its earnings into cash, which is a strong positive signal.
  • The low DSRI of 0.8686 suggests that the company is managing its inventory levels well relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individual investors with significant stakes, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential governance risks. The largest shareholder holds 30.2%, which could influence company direction significantly.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct a deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices and monitor future earnings reports closely. Consider diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with ownership concentration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.71
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.33
Negative
Composite
61
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-4.7%
Volatility
36.1%
Max Drawdown
-12.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.42P/E
P/B0.79
P/S0.66
ROE15.8%
ROA8.5%
EPS1928.72
BVPS13199.69
Gross Margin24.2%
Net Margin12.2%
D/E0.36
Current Ratio2.64
Rev Growth9.4%
Profit Growth105.4%
EV/EBITDA1.75
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
24.0M
Charter Capital
240.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng hóa giải trí
Sub-industry
Đồ chơi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NHT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Đoàn Hương Sơn
Indiv
30.2%
7.2 trieu
Lê Duy Anh
Indiv
13.0%
3.1 trieu
Bùi Thị Hiên
Indiv
10.0%
2.4 trieu
Trần Thanh Hương
Indiv
6.5%
1.6 trieu
Đào Ngọc Thu
Indiv
3.2%
486.393
Đoàn Thế Dũng
Indiv
2.9%
301.050
Lê Thị Hồng Minh
Indiv
1.6%
165.000
Ngô Văn Hòa
Indiv
1.5%
100.000
Trịnh Hữu Ngàn
Indiv
1.1%
58.860
Nguyễn Văn Hoàng
Indiv
0.8%
44.625
Lưu Vũ Sơn
Indiv
0.7%
156.830
Nguyễn Văn Toản
Indiv
0.1%
5.533
Board & Management
Đoàn Hương Sơn30.2%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Duy Anh13.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đào Ngọc Thu3.2%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Võ Văn Biên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Hải Văn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Ánh Ngọc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Linh Chi
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tiến Thọ
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thị Minh Tâm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Đức Cường
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Thị Phương Thảo
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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