MTP

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Dược Medipharco

Y tế/Dược phẩmCT

14.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

31.860

Current

14.000

Gap

+127.6%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

17.66%

Kd(1-t)

5.09%

D/(D+E)

82.34%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.35%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→33.24B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

33.24B

Growth Rate

5.35%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

31.860

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MTP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.83

Low Risk

DSRI

1.240

GMI

0.921

AQI

0.296

SGI

1.033

DEPI

1.069

SGAI

1.291

TATA

-0.049

LVGI

1.003

MTP exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.828, indicating a low likelihood of manipulation but raising questions about earnings quality. The earnings quality score of 51.1 suggests significant weaknesses in revenue recognition and margin performance, which are critical in the Vietnamese market context.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.828, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality metrics show an eq_receivables score of 27.1/100 and eq_margin score of 4.2/100, indicating poor revenue recognition and profitability issues.

Positive Signals

High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency.
Ownership concentration with top shareholders holding 15.2%, 15.2%, and 10.2% respectively, suggesting potential alignment of interests among major stakeholders.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure may lead to governance risks, as decisions could be heavily influenced by a few individuals, potentially sidelining minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor MTP's earnings quality and revenue recognition practices while considering the strong cash conversion as a positive signal. A cautious approach is advised until improvements in margin and revenue metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.46

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.30

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+14.7%

Volatility

69.8%

Max Drawdown

-28.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

5.86P/E

P/B0.94

P/S0.08

ROE16.8%

ROA3.0%

EPS2388.07

BVPS14853.56

Gross Margin7.9%

Net Margin1.4%

D/E4.66

Current Ratio1.15

Rev Growth3.5%

Profit Growth11.1%

EV/EBITDA8.93

Div Yield7.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

7.5M

Charter Capital

74.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Y tế

Industry (ICB L3)

Dược phẩm

Sub-industry

Dược phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MTP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Văn Hoàng

Indiv

15.2%

1.1 trieu

NGUYỄN THỊ TÚ QUỲNH

Indiv

15.2%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Phương Trâm

Indiv

10.2%

757.972

Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam

Inst

9.1%

678.501

Hoàng Ngọc Hoài Phong

Indiv

8.4%

625.266

Phạm Văn Trương

Indiv

5.1%

153.500

nguyen-minh-ngoc

Indiv

3.1%

205.028

Vũ Cẩm Nhung

Indiv

2.2%

66.845

Bùi Ngọc Khánh

Indiv

2.1%

63.018

Phạm Thị Bình

Indiv

1.5%

44.914

Nguyễn Thị Kim Dung

Indiv

1.5%

43.788

Phan Thị Minh Tâm

Indiv

1.3%

96.505

Trần Thị Hồng Bé

Indiv

1.3%

37.910

Tôn Thất Tâm

Indiv

1.2%

34.466

Hoàng Thị Hồng Phượng

Indiv

1.0%

30.713

Hồ Thị Thảo Ngân

Indiv

0.7%

21.370

Vũ Hoài Anh

Indiv

0.6%

16.955

Mai Phương Thảo

Indiv

0.5%

37.631

Lê Thị Thu

Indiv

0.5%

15.011

LÃ THÀNH LÊ

Indiv

0.3%

8.661

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Yên

Indiv

0.3%

7.505

Võ Thị Bích

Indiv

0.2%

5.509

Lê Tuấn Thanh

Indiv

0.1%

3.077

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Hoàng15.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Phương Trâm10.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Ngọc Hoài Phong8.4%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Ngọc3.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Kim Dung1.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Thị Minh Tâm1.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Tôn Thất Tâm1.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Vân Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trương Thị Hạnh Phước

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thái Bình

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Top connections

CDP66.3%DP165.4%TW365.0%UPH28.4%DAN26.5%DP322.1%IMP22.0%MKP18.2%NAB15.2%NHT15.2%AGP15.2%PMS15.2%

Computed 12/04/2026