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Utilities sector

NLS

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Lạng Sơn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
6.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
16.963
Current
6.800
Gap
+149.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend5.28%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS800
Payout ratio36.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
800
Base Growth
5.28%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
16.963
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NLS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

43
Weak
Accrual Quality
69
Cash Conversion
19
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
28
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.55
Elevated
DSRI
0.840
GMI
0.865
AQI
2.604
SGI
1.100
DEPI
0.951
SGAI
0.996
TATA
0.079
LVGI
0.856

NLS exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.5506, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 43.0/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 43.0/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.
  • Cash conversion score of 18.7/100 suggests significant discrepancies between reported earnings and actual cash flow.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.5506 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The significant state ownership of 36.0% may lead to potential conflicts of interest and influence over financial reporting, which is common in Vietnamese SOEs. However, institutional ownership of 20.1% may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and earnings quality indicators before making investment decisions. Consider a cautious approach given the mixed signals from the earnings quality assessment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.87
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.33
Excellent
Composite
54
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
77.7%
Max Drawdown
-0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
2.19P/E
P/B0.32
P/S0.16
ROE20.3%
ROA10.0%
EPS2986.14
BVPS15520.73
Gross Margin26.7%
Net Margin9.6%
D/E0.87
Current Ratio1.12
Rev Growth10.0%
Profit Growth59.8%
EV/EBITDA-0.47
Div Yield26.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NLS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Lạng Sơn
State
36.0%
1.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quốc tế Sơn Hà
Inst
20.1%
1.0 trieu
Nông Thị Hồng Nhung
Indiv
19.5%
979.000
Trịnh Tuyết Minh
Indiv
7.0%
349.900
Nông Thị Thanh Vân
Indiv
6.0%
300.000
Công ty Cổ Phần Sản Xuất Thương Mại Và Đầu Tư Thịnh Phát
Inst
5.1%
254.670
Nguyễn Hữu Chung
Indiv
3.8%
190.000
Linh Thị Huệ
Indiv
1.4%
70.500
Nguyễn Văn Quyết
Indiv
0.5%
23.100
Trần Đa Linh
Indiv
0.3%
16.500
Nguyễn Hồng Phong
Indiv
0.3%
15.000
Nguyễn Văn Cảnh
Indiv
0.2%
10.000
Board & Management
Nông Thị Hồng Nhung19.5%
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nông Thị Thanh Vân6.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Linh Thị Huệ1.4%
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Quyết0.5%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Trương Thị Thu Hải
Phó Giám đốc
Vũ Văn Bính
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Quang Huy
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hồ Cảnh Hội
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đào Duy Hưng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phương Mạnh Hào
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đình Quý
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Ngô An Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nhữ Văn Hoan
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Vĩnh Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đào Nam Phong
Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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