MCP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần In và Bao bì Mỹ Châu

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

27.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

26.619

Current

27.600

Gap

-3.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

84.78%

Kd(1-t)

6.30%

D/(D+E)

15.22%

WACC

11.30%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

29.789

50%DCF Value

23.450

Blended Intrinsic

26.619

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MCP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.22

Low Risk

DSRI

1.526

GMI

1.026

AQI

0.114

SGI

0.947

DEPI

0.792

SGAI

1.086

TATA

-0.199

LVGI

0.582

MCP exhibits several concerning financial indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.2219, suggesting a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 54.8 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition and margin quality, raising red flags about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.2219 indicates low risk of manipulation but DSRI of 1.5265 suggests potential issues with receivables growth compared to sales.
Earnings Quality Score of 54.8/100 is below average, with a particularly poor eq_margin score of 9.5/100 indicating weak profitability relative to revenue.

Positive Signals

High cash conversion rate (eq_cash_conv of 100.0/100) suggests that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash.
Strong institutional ownership of 20.3% by Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Tài Sản Việt Leader may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant individual stakes, with Trần Quang Huy holding 24.6%, which could lead to potential governance risks if personal interests conflict with minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Monitor MCP closely for changes in revenue recognition practices and margin improvement. Consider a cautious investment approach, focusing on cash flow metrics and institutional actions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

1/9

Weak

Z-Score

9.19

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.13

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+1.4%

Volatility

17.3%

Max Drawdown

-12.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

53.01P/E

P/B2.04

P/S1.35

ROE3.8%

ROA3.3%

EPS535.79

BVPS13935.43

Gross Margin9.8%

Net Margin2.5%

D/E0.18

Current Ratio6.19

Rev Growth-10.5%

Profit Growth-64.6%

EV/EBITDA66.40

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

19.9M

Charter Capital

198.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MCP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Trần Quang Huy

Indiv

24.6%

3.7 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Tài Sản Việt Leader

Inst

20.3%

3.0 trieu

Phan Đỗ Hạnh

Indiv

14.0%

2.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Hòn Ngọc Á Châu

Inst

4.6%

690.000

Trương Nữ Thị Đỗ Quỳnh

Indiv

4.3%

640.270

Vũ Trọng Tuấn

Indiv

4.3%

768.324

Nguyễn Đức Hiếu

Indiv

3.1%

461.694

Đỗ Ngọc Khanh

Indiv

2.8%

418.000

the blackhorse enhanced vietnam inc.

Inst

2.2%

228.808

Trần Giang Sơn

Indiv

0.6%

84.035

Nguyễn Văn Nguyên

Indiv

0.3%

10.000

nguyen-chi-hieu

Indiv

0.1%

23.000

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Bình

Indiv

0.1%

15.456

Board & Management

Phan Đỗ Hạnh14.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Nữ Thị Đỗ Quỳnh4.3%

Tổng Giám đốc

Võ Ngọc Huỳnh Thư

Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Đình Thái

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lưu Nguyễn Chí Nhân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Vang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Nghị

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thanh Phụng

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Tuấn Vinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

SDY24.6%PSD24.6%NLS24.6%PET24.6%AMP23.3%KTT4.2%TIN3.3%AAS3.2%SDT3.2%D113.1%IJC2.2%

Computed 12/04/2026