OCH

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần One Capital Hospitality

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

5.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.603

Current

5.400

Gap

-14.8%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

49.68%

Kd(1-t)

6.48%

D/(D+E)

50.32%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.68%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→122.99B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

122.99B

Growth Rate

2.68%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

4.603

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — OCH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.88

Moderate

DSRI

1.346

GMI

0.984

AQI

1.000

SGI

1.149

DEPI

1.080

SGAI

0.890

TATA

0.022

LVGI

0.909

OCH exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a Beneish M-Score of -1.8782, which indicates a potential for earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 50.0/100, combined with low cash conversion metrics, suggests underlying issues with revenue recognition and cash flow.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8782, indicating potential earnings manipulation as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 50.0/100, with a notably low cash conversion score of 14.4/100, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100, indicating strong management of receivables and potential for cash collection.
A relatively low SGI of 1.1486 suggests that sales growth is not excessively outpacing the industry average, which may indicate a more stable operational environment.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đại Dương holding 55.6%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor OCH's financial disclosures and consider conducting further due diligence on cash flow management. It may be prudent to approach any investment with caution, given the elevated risk indicators.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.69

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.68

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-18.4%

Volatility

39.9%

Max Drawdown

-37.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

15.05P/E

P/B0.73

P/S1.03

ROE4.9%

ROA2.0%

EPS385.38

BVPS7965.87

Gross Margin48.5%

Net Margin6.8%

D/E0.84

Current Ratio1.04

Rev Growth16.7%

Profit Growth-56.6%

EV/EBITDA8.46

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

200.0M

Charter Capital

2000.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for OCH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đại Dương

Inst

55.6%

111.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Ids Equity Holdings

Inst

9.9%

19.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Quản Lý Quỹ Leadvisors Capital Management

Inst

6.5%

12.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ Leadvisors

Inst

6.1%

12.2 trieu

Hà Trọng Nam

Indiv

2.1%

4.2 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Lan Hương

Indiv

1.8%

3.7 trieu

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Xây Dựng Sông Đà

Inst

0.6%

1.2 trieu

Nguyễn Duy Quốc Việt

Indiv

0.4%

57.854

Lê Thị Ánh Tuyết

Indiv

0.1%

200.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thành Trung

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Mai Hoa

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Giang Nam

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Quốc Toản

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Quang Thành

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thế Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Hương Nga

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Xuân Dương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Kim Oanh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thu Hằng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Thị Dung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PVR55.6%GDA32.6%ONW21.8%PVV19.0%VGR13.7%ADP2 links PND9.0%PSG8.6%HHP8.3%PVH7.1%HAH6.1%POB2 links

Computed 12/04/2026