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Utilities sector

POB

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu Dầu khí Hưng Yên
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
50.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
2.847
Current
50.800
Gap
-94.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS151
Payout ratio94.5%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
151
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
2.847
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — POB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

75
Good
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.21
Moderate
DSRI
1.126
GMI
1.016
AQI
1.960
SGI
1.096
DEPI
0.970
SGAI
1.003
TATA
-0.066
LVGI
1.028

POB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2051, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 74.7 suggests some areas of concern, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality margin score is 0.0/100, indicating potential issues with profit realization despite strong cash conversion and receivables metrics.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion and receivables metrics are both at 100.0/100, indicating strong operational efficiency in cash management.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the largest shareholder, Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam, holding 68.0%. This may pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor POB's revenue recognition practices and profit margins while considering the strong cash conversion metrics. A thorough review of governance practices is also advisable given the concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
19.20
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Negative
Composite
45
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
1.3%
Max Drawdown
-0.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1331.41P/E
P/B4.94
P/S0.21
ROE0.4%
ROA0.2%
EPS38.16
BVPS10276.99
Gross Margin2.5%
Net Margin0.0%
D/E0.64
Current Ratio1.20
Rev Growth9.6%
Profit Growth-70.3%
EV/EBITDA97.23
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.9M
Charter Capital
109.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for POB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
68.0%
7.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SmartInvest
Inst
14.7%
1.6 trieu
Ngân hàng TM TNHH MTV Việt Nam Hiện đại
Inst
11.0%
1.2 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đông Nam Á
Inst
9.0%
851.189
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ Leadvisors
Inst
3.5%
381.500
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ Leadvisors
Inst
3.5%
381.500
Hoàng Minh Tiến
Indiv
2.0%
213.808
Board & Management
Phạm Ngọc Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Quách Văn Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Đoàn Duy Công
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Thùy Dương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Ngô Văn Tuân
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thủy
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Minh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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