PEN

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp III Petrolimex

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

9.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

5.972

Current

9.500

Gap

-37.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Distressed Valuation

Negative Enterprise Value

BVPS

11.944

Discount

50%

Floor Value

11.944

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PEN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.41

High Risk

DSRI

0.776

GMI

1.159

AQI

0.702

SGI

1.460

DEPI

0.935

SGAI

0.607

TATA

0.183

LVGI

1.035

PEN exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly an Earnings Quality Score of 29.5/100, indicating significant issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition. While the Beneish M-Score of -1.4076 suggests a lower likelihood of manipulation, the high SGI of 1.4601 raises concerns about aggressive growth strategies that may not be sustainable.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 29.5/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100.
SGI of 1.4601 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -1.4076 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công ty TNHH MTV - Tổng Công ty Xây Lắp Và Thương Mại Petrolimex, holds 30.0%, indicating a significant institutional influence which can provide stability but may also lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PEN's cash flow and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach to investment due to elevated risks associated with earnings quality and aggressive growth metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.48

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.31

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-13.3%

Volatility

94.3%

Max Drawdown

-38.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

20.77P/E

P/B0.69

P/S0.11

ROE3.4%

ROA0.7%

EPS399.70

BVPS11943.56

Gross Margin6.9%

Net Margin0.5%

D/E4.43

Current Ratio1.28

Rev Growth46.0%

Profit Growth97.8%

EV/EBITDA12.48

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

5.0M

Charter Capital

50.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PEN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV - Tổng Công ty Xây Lắp Và Thương Mại Petrolimex

Inst

30.0%

1.5 trieu

Lê Huy Thủy

Indiv

8.6%

429.760

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Thịnh vượng và Phát triển

Indiv

5.2%

260.000

Nguyễn Thị Phượng

Indiv

5.0%

249.120

Vũ Lộc

Indiv

4.8%

239.760

Nguyễn Hồng Kỳ

Indiv

4.3%

214.360

Hà Thị Xuân Anh

Indiv

4.2%

210.000

Cung Quang Hà

Indiv

4.0%

198.740

Đặng Đình Thắng

Indiv

2.4%

119.630

ĐINH MINH THẮNG

Indiv

1.8%

92.500

Trần Ngọc Hải

Indiv

1.6%

79.660

Lê Trung Dũng

Indiv

1.4%

72.020

Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu Sông Châu

Inst

1.0%

50.000

Lý Trý Thắng

Indiv

0.6%

28.040

Hoàng Trần Như Quỳnh

Indiv

0.5%

27.610

Nguyễn Sum

Indiv

0.4%

18.420

Dương Minh Trí

Indiv

0.2%

11.860

Nguyễn Huy Nhắn

Indiv

0.1%

6.530

Lê Thị Hồng Mai

Indiv

0.1%

5.180

nguyen-thi-van

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Trần Thị Vầy

Indiv

0.1%

5.010

Board & Management

Lê Huy Thủy8.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Phượng5.0%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Lộc4.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hồng Kỳ4.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Trần Như Quỳnh0.5%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Sum0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Dương Minh Trí0.2%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Huy Nhân0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Hồng Mai0.1%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Thanh

Phó Giám đốc

Top connections

PIT52.7%PLA51.0%PLE51.0%PEQ50.5%PIA50.3%PMS46.2%PCC2 links DHP21.1%SDP12.5%CDG12.4%VLA9.4%KDM6.7%

Computed 12/04/2026