PMP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì Đạm Phú Mỹ

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

13.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

2.687

Current

13.800

Gap

-80.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

28.84%

Kd(1-t)

6.28%

D/(D+E)

71.16%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.70%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

13.069

50%DCF Value

-7.694

Blended Intrinsic

2.687

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PMP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.17

Moderate

DSRI

1.210

GMI

1.136

AQI

0.991

SGI

1.112

DEPI

0.987

SGAI

0.864

TATA

-0.012

LVGI

1.044

PMP exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1674, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high concentration of institutional ownership raises concerns about potential governance issues and conflicts of interest.

Red Flags

High institutional ownership concentration: 43.3% by Tổng Công ty Phân bón và Hóa chất Dầu khí and 40.0% by Công Ty Trách Nhiệm Hữu Hạn Hương Phong, which may lead to lack of independent oversight.

Positive Signals

Strong earnings quality score of 84.7/100, with particularly high scores in accruals (95.3/100) and cash conversion (100.0/100), indicating robust financial health.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly institutions, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability to minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor governance practices and consider diversifying their holdings to mitigate risks associated with high institutional ownership concentration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.82

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.08

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+8.0%

Volatility

42.0%

Max Drawdown

-23.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.25P/E

P/B0.72

P/S0.08

ROE11.7%

ROA3.2%

EPS2000.56

BVPS17474.52

Gross Margin9.7%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E2.85

Current Ratio1.09

Rev Growth11.2%

Profit Growth13.3%

EV/EBITDA5.90

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4.2M

Charter Capital

42.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PMP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Phân bón và Hóa chất Dầu khí

Inst

43.3%

1.8 trieu

Công Ty Trách Nhiệm Hữu Hạn Hương Phong

Inst

40.0%

1.7 trieu

Công ty TNHH Du Lịch, Sản Xuất, Thương Mại Hương Phong

Inst

40.0%

Phạm Văn Hiền

Indiv

5.0%

208.280

Trương Đình Xuân

Indiv

0.3%

12.000

Trần Đăng Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

10.000

Phạm Thị Thoan

Indiv

0.2%

10.000

Trần Hải Thanh

Indiv

0.2%

10.000

Nguyễn Thị May

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Trương Đình Thanh

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Phạm Ngọc Thiệp

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Board & Management

Trần Anh Tú

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Lê Hồng Quân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Khánh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Cao Vĩnh Hậu

Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Thị Huệ

Phó Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Trần Thượng Tín

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thu Oanh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hồng Nguyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Chu Xuân Hải

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

PCE75.0%PMB75.0%PSE75.0%PSW75.0%PAI43.3%UXC43.3%VTH24.8%ATG6.2%BT65.0%MTS5.0%ABS5.0%HNM1.3%

Computed 12/04/2026