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Consumer sector

MTS

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Vật tư - TKV
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT
10.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.984
Current
10.200
Gap
-21.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.000
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.50%
Ke
11.50%
x
E/(D+E)
28.47%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.25%
x
D/(D+E)
71.53%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.72%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF15.33B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
15.33B
Growth Rate
4.72%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
7.984
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MTS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

33
Weak
Accrual Quality
69
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
31
Margin Stability
64
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.18
Moderate
DSRI
1.284
GMI
0.896
AQI
0.430
SGI
1.013
DEPI
0.907
SGAI
1.200
TATA
0.078
LVGI
1.035

MTS exhibits several concerning financial metrics indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.1831, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The low earnings quality score of 32.9/100 further highlights issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1831 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 32.9/100 reflects poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100), raising concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 1.2843 suggests that inventory growth is in line with sales, which can be a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The significant ownership concentration, with Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam holding 51.0%, poses a risk of governance issues and potential conflicts of interest, limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on MTS, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.91
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.30
Positive
Composite
39
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+15.6%
Volatility
29.9%
Max Drawdown
-18.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.58P/E
P/B0.78
P/S0.03
ROE12.1%
ROA3.5%
EPS1449.66
BVPS12161.02
Gross Margin4.8%
Net Margin0.5%
D/E2.56
Current Ratio1.31
Rev Growth1.3%
Profit Growth45.0%
EV/EBITDA6.28
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
15.0M
Charter Capital
150.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry
Nhà cung cấp thiết bị
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MTS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam
Inst
51.0%
7.7 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Đại Vạn Phú
Inst
17.7%
2.6 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Huyên
Indiv
7.4%
1.1 trieu
LƯU TUYẾT HƯƠNG
Indiv
7.3%
1.1 trieu
Tạ Quang Tuấn
Indiv
1.1%
163.298
Nguyễn Thế Hưng
Indiv
0.1%
17.000
Board & Management
Tạ Quang Tuấn1.1%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Hùng0.1%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tô Thị Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Mạnh Cường
Phó Giám đốc
Lê Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Kiên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trương Quang Vệ
Phó Giám đốc
Hoàng Xuân Tùng
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Quang Tuyến
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Văn Tú
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thế Thành
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Ninh Thị Mỹ Ngà
Phó Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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