ABS
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ABS
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2024
The Beneish M-Score of -3.4443 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, yet the high DSRI (2.1901) and GMI (2.4783) raise concerns about potential revenue inflation and deteriorating gross margins. The earnings quality score of 34.3/100, particularly low in accruals and receivables, suggests significant risks in the company's financial reporting.
- DSRI of 2.1901 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
- GMI of 2.4783 signals a concerning trend in gross margin deterioration, which could reflect operational inefficiencies or aggressive accounting practices.
- Earnings Quality Score of 34.3/100, with 0.0 in eq_accrual and eq_receivables, highlights a lack of cash flow conversion and raises questions about the sustainability of reported earnings.
- Cash conversion is perfect at 100.0/100, indicating that the company is able to convert its sales into cash effectively.
- SGI of 0.3864 suggests that sales growth is not overly aggressive, which may indicate a more sustainable growth trajectory.
The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, which may lead to concentrated control and potential governance risks. However, the absence of institutional investors may limit oversight.
Investors should approach ABS with caution, closely monitoring cash flow and revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before considering a position.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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