PTS

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Dịch vụ Petrolimex Hải Phòng

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

9.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

25.374

Current

9.200

Gap

+175.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

43.25%

Kd(1-t)

5.14%

D/(D+E)

56.75%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

30.077

50%DCF Value

20.671

Blended Intrinsic

25.374

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PTS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.44

Moderate

DSRI

1.141

GMI

0.790

AQI

1.884

SGI

0.965

DEPI

0.853

SGAI

1.171

TATA

-0.059

LVGI

0.938

The Beneish M-Score of -2.435 indicates that PTS is not likely engaging in earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality, which raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 59.5/100 indicates moderate risk, with particularly low scores in eq_margin (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (31.0/100), suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition and profitability.
The SGI of 0.9648 indicates a slight contraction in sales growth, which could signal weakening demand or operational challenges.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 1.1413 suggests that inventory levels are in line with sales, which is a positive sign for operational efficiency.
A high eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion from earnings, which is a positive indicator of liquidity.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Thủy Petrolimex (51.0%) indicates a strong institutional presence, which can provide stability. However, the lack of diverse individual shareholders may limit governance and oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PTS's earnings quality and revenue recognition practices, given the significant weaknesses identified. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until improvements in operational metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.10

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.58

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+25.6%

Volatility

29.2%

Max Drawdown

-20.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.79P/E

P/B0.50

P/S0.14

ROE10.7%

ROA4.8%

EPS1943.08

BVPS18754.24

Gross Margin14.4%

Net Margin2.9%

D/E1.14

Current Ratio0.57

Rev Growth-3.5%

Profit Growth183.1%

EV/EBITDA2.42

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

5.6M

Charter Capital

55.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PTS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Thủy Petrolimex

Inst

51.0%

2.8 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Hùng

Indiv

1.7%

95.812

Đào Thanh Liêm

Indiv

0.4%

20.000

Phạm Thị Ngọc Anh

Indiv

0.4%

19.748

Đào Mạnh Kiên

Indiv

0.2%

10.000

Nguyễn Ngọc Thạch

Indiv

0.2%

9.920

Đào Thị Tuyết

Indiv

0.2%

9.310

Nguyễn Minh Trường

Indiv

0.1%

8.600

Board & Management

Đào Thanh Liêm0.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Ngọc Anh0.4%

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trọng Thủy0.2%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Mạnh Kiên0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Trường0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Kim Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Minh Khiêm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Thị Thúy

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trịnh Chiến Chinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Hồng Anh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lâm Việt Hồng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CCP63.9%VTO51.9%PJT51.2%VIP2 links HVA5.0%DAN4.3%LCD2.4%DAS1.7%NHA1.7%BCM1.7%TPP1.7%SKN1.7%

Computed 12/04/2026