CCP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Cửa Cấm Hải Phòng

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

15.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.281

Current

15.800

Gap

-72.9%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

91.46%

Kd(1-t)

6.56%

D/(D+E)

8.54%

WACC

11.72%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

3.823

50%DCF Value

4.739

Blended Intrinsic

4.281

Value Decomposition

41%

59%

Explicit period (41%)Terminal value (59%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CCP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.33

Low Risk

DSRI

0.184

GMI

1.047

AQI

0.094

SGI

0.786

DEPI

1.079

SGAI

1.163

TATA

0.088

LVGI

0.880

CCP exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly its Beneish M-Score of -3.3314, which suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 42.3 indicates significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.3314 indicates low risk of manipulation, but the earnings quality score of 42.3 reflects significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (40.5/100).
The SGI of 0.7859 suggests that sales growth is declining, which may indicate potential issues with demand or market positioning.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 0.1843 indicates that accounts receivable are well managed relative to revenue, suggesting efficient collection practices.
The high receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates that the company is effectively managing its receivables, which is a positive sign for liquidity.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Thủy Petrolimex (63.9%) suggests a strong institutional backing, which can provide stability. However, this concentration also poses risks related to governance and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor CCP closely for improvements in cash conversion and revenue recognition metrics. Given the elevated risk level, consider a cautious approach, possibly waiting for clearer signals of operational stability before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

7.04

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.40

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.6%

Volatility

152.3%

Max Drawdown

-66.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.99P/E

P/B0.73

P/S4.35

ROE8.4%

ROA7.7%

EPS1758.10

BVPS21634.35

Gross Margin58.3%

Net Margin48.4%

D/E0.09

Current Ratio16.72

Rev Growth-21.4%

Profit Growth-80.4%

EV/EBITDA65.67

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.4M

Charter Capital

24.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CCP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Thủy Petrolimex

Inst

63.9%

1.5 trieu

Trần Thành Trung

Indiv

6.8%

161.950

Lê Thị Vân Anh

Indiv

0.4%

10.000

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Mai

Indiv

0.3%

6.550

Hoàng Thị Hoài

Indiv

0.2%

5.450

Nguyễn Cảnh Thăng

Indiv

0.2%

5.500

Đinh Mai Hân

Indiv

0.1%

2.900

Phạm Thị Ngọc Anh

Indiv

0.1%

2.500

Board & Management

Lê Thị Vân Anh0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Mai0.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Cảnh Thăng0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Đinh Mai Hân0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Ban

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Mạnh Cường

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Minh Quý

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Việt Dũng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Thị Thúy Hường

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VTO63.9%PJT63.9%PTS63.9%VIP63.9%TVB6.8%L633.9%CVN2.8%CIG1.8%VPB1.4%NAF1.0%KSQ1.0%

Computed 12/04/2026