RGG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Regal Group

Bất động sảnCT

39.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.870

Current

39.800

Gap

-80.2%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

48.98%

Kd(1-t)

6.19%

D/(D+E)

51.02%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.77%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

15.739

60%DCF Value

-1.296

Blended Intrinsic

7.870

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — RGG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.68

Elevated

DSRI

1.025

GMI

1.236

AQI

2.053

SGI

1.169

DEPI

1.707

SGAI

1.251

TATA

0.013

LVGI

1.058

The Beneish M-Score of -1.6778 is just above the manipulation threshold, indicating potential earnings manipulation risks. Additionally, the low earnings quality score of 49.4, particularly the 0.0 score in receivables, raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6778 is close to the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 49.4/100 indicates weak earnings quality, with a particularly concerning receivables score of 0.0/100.

Positive Signals

The company's DSRI of 1.0254 is close to 1, indicating stable inventory management.
The accrual component of the Earnings Quality Score is strong at 94.9/100, suggesting that reported earnings are backed by actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The top two shareholders, both institutions, hold a combined 110% stake, indicating potential cross-holding issues and reduced liquidity. This concentrated ownership may lead to governance risks and conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor RGG's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach due to elevated risks of earnings manipulation. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.35

Grey Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

53.27P/E

P/B3.11

P/S11.00

ROE6.0%

ROA2.9%

EPS735.87

BVPS12591.28

Gross Margin51.0%

Net Margin20.6%

D/E1.10

Current Ratio2.44

Rev Growth-8.8%

Profit Growth-17.3%

EV/EBITDA46.23

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

200.0M

Charter Capital

2000.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for RGG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Bất động sản Đất Xanh

Inst

55.0%

110.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đất Xanh

Inst

55.0%

Trần Ngọc Thành

Indiv

15.0%

30.0 trieu

Lương Trí Thìn

Indiv

5.2%

9.3 trieu

Trần Ngọc Thái

Indiv

2.0%

4.0 trieu

Top connections

DXS55.4%DXG15.5%APC15.0%BEL12.3%

Computed 12/04/2026