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Cyclicals sector

SCS

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Hàng hóa Sài Gòn
Du lịch và Giải trí/Du lịch & Giải tríCT
54.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
69.841
Current
54.300
Gap
+28.6%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTDu lịch và Giải tríCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Du lịch và Giải trí" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA627.97B
Fair EV/EBITDA10.5x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
627.97B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
10.5x
-
Net Debt
-10.53B
=
Equity Value
69.841
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SCS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

83
Good
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
78
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.37
Moderate
DSRI
1.021
GMI
0.984
AQI
0.844
SGI
1.154
DEPI
0.896
SGAI
0.838
TATA
0.007
LVGI
1.076

SCS exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.3689, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the SGI of 1.1541 suggests aggressive growth, which could pose risks if not supported by sustainable revenue.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.1541 indicates aggressive growth that may not be sustainable.
  • EQ Revenue score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 82.6/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality.
  • High EQ Receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership, with Gemadept holding 33.4%, which may provide stability. However, the concentration of ownership could lead to governance risks if interests diverge.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's revenue recognition practices closely due to the low EQ Revenue score. Consider a cautious investment approach, given the aggressive growth indicated by the SGI.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
7.78
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.92
Negative
Composite
56
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-19.3%
Volatility
19.4%
Max Drawdown
-31.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.41P/E
P/B3.56
P/S4.65
ROE50.6%
ROA37.0%
EPS7358.42
BVPS15299.40
Gross Margin78.5%
Net Margin62.8%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio2.82
Rev Growth15.4%
Profit Growth8.4%
EV/EBITDA6.06
Div Yield4.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
94.9M
Charter Capital
1020.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3)
Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry
Hàng không
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SCS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Gemadept
Inst
33.4%
34.1 trieu
Tổng Công ty Cảng Hàng không Việt Nam
Inst
13.7%
14.0 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Sửa Chữa Máy Bay 41
Inst
7.1%
7.2 trieu
PYN Elite Fund
Inst
4.9%
4.6 trieu
the ton poh fund
Inst
4.7%
2.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Công nghiệp Việt Nam
Inst
4.6%
2.4 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Việt Á
Inst
4.4%
2.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Dịch vụ Đầu tư Sài Gòn Hàng Không
Inst
4.0%
2.3 trieu
Đặng Thị Thanh Trà
Indiv
1.7%
1.7 trieu
Nguyễn Quốc Khánh
Indiv
1.4%
1.4 trieu
Đoàn Ngọc Cương
Indiv
1.1%
648.090
Đỗ Tất Luận
Indiv
0.3%
312.768
Phạm Bích Vượng
Indiv
0.1%
87.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Quốc Khánh1.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Đoàn Ngọc Cương1.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Tất Bình
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thị Thu Hương
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Xuân Cảnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tạ Thu Hà
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Cù Thị Thuận
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Phạm Quang Hải
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thái Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Thị Hoàng Bắc
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tô Hiến Phượng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Minh Sang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Khoa Năng Lưu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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