TDS
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TDS
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The Beneish M-Score of -2.7072 indicates that TDS is not likely engaging in earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.5403 and low earnings quality score in revenue and margin raise concerns about growth sustainability and profitability.
- SGI of 1.5403 suggests aggressive growth which may not be supported by fundamentals.
- Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating potential issues with profitability and revenue recognition.
- High earnings quality score of 75.4/100 indicates overall strong earnings quality, particularly in cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables (100.0/100).
- Low DSRI of 0.3176 suggests that the company is managing its inventory well relative to sales.
The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam holding 65.0%, which may lead to potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder influence.
Investors should closely monitor TDS's growth strategies and profitability metrics, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious approach until clearer signals of sustainable growth and profitability emerge.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for TDS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate